UPDATE 8/30:

Original cortex post (before the Gallup update)>>

Obama 4 points up, or all tied up?

USAToday buried the headline. The poll number finding from last weekend (before the convention hooplah) with Obama ahead – is below.

Obama holds a 47%-43% edge over McCain among registered voters and a 48%-45% edge among likely voters.

[In the USA TODAY/Gallup Poll a month ago, Obama led McCain by 3 percentage points, but McCain held a 4-point lead among likely voters.]

And Obama is pulling a few points higher than this now following the Dems confab and coverage of Denver.

Based on falling congressional approval ratings, Republicans have been publicly implying that Americans don't like Congress since the Democrats gained control in January. In fact, congressional Republicans have far lower approval ratings than Democrats.

Given the recent polling data, Republicans should stop speciously pointing fingers and start asking: 1) why do most Americans view us negatively, and 2) what can we actually do to change that?

Last week's Gallup poll found that more American's trusted Democrats over Republicans to do a better overall job and to handle national security and prosperity. The new Washington Post/ABC poll results contain similarly bad news for Republicans.

As polls continue to roll in just 5 days to the most important election of the last 50 years, one thing is clear: Democrats are positioned to destroy Republican majorities in both the House of Representatives AND the Senate.

Connecticut

Quinnipiac University - 926 likely voters 10/24-30

Joe Lieberman (Would vote with Dems for Senate Leadership) ~ 49%
Ned Lamont (D) ~ 37%
Alan Schlesinger (R) at 8%.

Rasmussen - 500 likely voters

Lieberman ~48%
Lamont ~ 40%

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Maryland

Zogby Interactive online

Rep. Ben Cardin (D) ~ 52.8%
Lt. Gov. Michael Steele (R) ~ 43.5%

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Michigan

Zogby Interactive online

Debbie Stabenow ~ 49.3%
Mike Bouchard ~ 41.9%

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Minnesota

St. Cloud State University - 494 likely voters - 10/15-27

Amy Klobuchar (D) ~ 56%
Rep. Mark Kennedy (R) ~ 31%.

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Missouri

SurveyUSA - 10/31

Claire McCaskill (D) - 49%
Sen. Jim Talent (R) - 43%.

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Pennsylvania

Quinnipiac University - 933 likely voters 10/23-29

Bob Casey Jr. (D) ~ 52%
Sen. Rick Santorum (R) 42%

Keystone Poll  - 626 registered voters - 10/25-29

Casey (D) ~ 53%
Santorum (R) ~ 38%

Zogby Interactive online poll

Casey (D) ~ 52.7%
Santorum (R) ~ 43.8%

Given that the 'undecideds' tend to break for the challenger, CW suggests that non-incumbent strength like that seen in these polls and others so close to the election means that the GOP is in for a rout.

From Pollster.com

New York 26 -- Leans Dem
(Avg of Last 5 Polls)
Jack Davis (D) -- 49
Tom Reynolds (R)* -- 43
_

The first thing people in NY's 26th district should remember when entering election booths next week is that Republican Rep. Tom Reynolds subordinated the need to protect America's children in favor of ensuring a safe GOP seat in Florida's 16th district.

Reynolds' Pedophile Protection Policy was in full swing when he persuaded GOP Rep. Mark Foley to run yet again for his Florida congressional seat despite the fact that Reynolds and other Republican leaders had been made aware of Foley's 'inappropriate' e-mails to a teenage congressional page by the page's congressional sponsor, Rep. Rodney Alexander (R-La.).

The second thing you should know is that this is not the only time that Tom Reynolds has abused his privileged position as the congressional representative for Western NY.

New York 29 -- Strong Dem
(Avg of Last 3 Polls)
Eric Massa (D) -- 48
Randy Kuhl (R)* -- 41
_

The last two polls for NY's 29th District have shown Eric Massa leading his Republican opponent by less than the polls' margins of error. That has all changed with the latest poll results.

Now Massa leads Kuhl by 12 points according to a new poll conducted by the independent organization Majority Watch.

The poll shows Massa with 52% of likely voters preferring him compared to only 40% selecting Kuhl. In addition, voters in the northern half of the 29th district (Rochester suburbs and parts of Ontario County) favor Massa by 26%. In the GOP-leaning Southern tier, Kuhl still maintains his advantage, but only by a single point.

This surge comes after both candidates have "dramatically increased their media presence on both radio and television and have participated in a series of five public debates":

"We knew from earlier polling that name recognition was our biggest challenge," said Massa's Campaign Manager, Mike Nolan. Previous data had indicated that voters familiar with both Massa and Kuhl preferred the challenger by a margin of 2 to 1. "The voters are tired of Randy Kuhl," continued Nolan. "Once they get a chance to hear from Eric Massa they overwhelmingly support him."

32% of Americans think Bush should be impeached. Considering his complete 180 on why we went to Iraq in the 1st place, I'd say that 32% is ahead of the curve.

Sound-off. This poll allows for multiple choices, so choose all that apply.

"The poll" is a time-honored method of argument, most often employed against those too naïve to know any better than to believe in the raw numbers. "Numbers don't lie!" the naive say to themselves. "Numbers are pure, sweet truth! Therefore, polls are the heavenly truths of the gods themselves!" Of course, more reasonably minded folk know better, but polls are still used to excite the masses, inflame the passions, and push the agendas of all who desire a certain end. The "poll" can be their means to that end.

Alas for all who seek the basest of truth that lies in the recesses of all polls. One would think that the method of asking a bunch of people their opinions on several topics and then coming up with the percentile data of those opinions wouldn't result in such dissembling, but here we are. Polls and their results are clouded with mystery. How does a poll come into existence? Certainly some people must have been contacted to participate in these things. Certainly questions were asked, answers were given, and numbers were spawned. Unfortunately, the numbers, while not lies, do not tell the entire story and should be viewed with a critical eye.

The latest Newsweek poll shows Bush and his party to be about as popular as a prostitute soliciting customers in front of a Southern Baptist convention.

We have over 600 registered users, so if you've been hiding in your Cortex closet, now is the time to time come out and vote! Better yet, share the reasons behind your answer.

For those Republicans still trying to claim that Tuesday's elections weren't about Bush, the latest AP-Ipsos poll proves that the rejection of GOP candidates was very much about Bush:

As far as I'm concerned, CBS has redeemed itself for caving-in to the extreme right-wing on "The Reagans" biopic, refusing to air an ad from the gay-friendly United Church of Christ, blowing the story of Bush's  failure to fulfill his National Guard duties, and a host of stories reported with a conservative bias so blatant that the reporters and producers behind them no doubt developed bursitis in their right arms.

This evening, CBS News delivered a one-two punch to George Bush and his obscenely corrupt administration with two stories featuring its latest poll; the reported results are absolutely devastating, and the collective mouth of the Radical Right must be covered in more froth than a club kiddie at a foam party.

A new CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll is absolutely devastating to the Bush Junta. If you so wish, feel free to perform the "Snoopy Happy Dance," even if you're at work; if anyone asks, tell them it's a "religious thing" and threaten to file a lawsuit if they keep bothering you. Now, onto the poll.

A whopping majority, 55% "now judge Bush's presidency to be a failure," and believe that the remaining three years of "his" presidency will continue to be a failure;

Only 49% view Bush as honest and trustworthy (which is amazingly high and just underscores the fact that the "liberal media" is a complete and total fabrication of the extreme right-wing);

56% believes he can't "manage the government effectively;"

From MSNBC: "Do you support President Bush's nomination of Judge Samuel Alito to the Supreme Court?"

(Note: Apologies, all; this post should have gone under "Code Blue" for activism, which can be accessed from "Create New Article.")

The Washington Post reports on Bush's declining numbers:

Friday's indictment of Vice President Cheney's chief of staff I. Lewis "Scooter" Libby dealt another big blow to public confidence in the administration, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll. Bush's approval rating fell to 39 percent -- the lowest recorded by this poll in his presidency -- and a majority of Americans said the charges signal broader ethical problems in the administration. By a ratio of 3 to 1, those surveyed said the level of honesty in government has declined during Bush's tenure.