Keyword: Polls

Cell-Phone-Only Households Will Save Democrats: Look at the Numbers Email Print

The latest rage - or outrage - on the right is this Newsweek Poll. You know, the Newsweek poll - the one that said that Obama has a 54% approval rating and that 48% of registered voters prefer to vote for a Democrat, while only 42% lean Republican.

That Newsweek Poll.

Seems the Repuglinuts don't like that poll because it doesn't fit their teabag revolution narrative. They slant their brows in angry scowls, slam their hammy fists and declare the poll an outlier, unfit for human consumption!!!

"Look at Real Clear Politics," they insist. "Their totally and completely non-partisan analysis of polling numbers shows that the Newsweek poll is a fake, a lie, a CONSPIRACY - all designed by the VLWC to raise the specter of Republican failure only days before the greatest and most important election of forever."

Oh, what a world!


So what about that Newsweek poll? Was it an outlier? Was it in any way valid? Are we desperate for a sprig of hope? Are we totally delusional?

After all, that Newsweek poll totally disagrees with all those other, much, MUCH more  legitimate polls that show Obama with a -0.0% likey-likey rating and a generic ballot that suggests a pickup for the Republicans somewhere between 1.2 million and infinity seats in the House.

The Reality is that these pollsters sometimes have a difficult time adjusting to a thing we all refer to as "Progress". Say it with me Pro-gress.

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Polling destiny. Swing state, no enthusiasm gap. Email Print

A ballyhooed gulf in excitement and commitment for D's & R's is not showing up like you'd expect in the closely watched battleground of Nevada. At least not at summer's end, heading to the home stretch. The National Review reports that Nevada's new voter registrations for the month of August leaned more heavily Democratic and independent than Republican. The August figures:  Democrats 2617, Republican 2037, non-partisan independent 2,249.  It's only one month, but gives no sign of fatigue in Democrats. The deadline to register in Nevada, by the way, is Saturday October 2.

The 2 parties have been trading leads a few times on the generic ballot question ("vote for a Democrat, or a Republican for Congress?") since the late spring, creating suspense and anxiety about the nationwide political landscape.

Recent polls don't settle it.  Politico/GW poll: tied (43-43, likely voters); and

Dems show a 1-point lead in the (pdf) PPP survey: D +1 >> PPP: "Democrats have retaken a 45-44 lead in the national generic Congressional ballot, after being down 42-45 in August."

"(The current) Democrats in Congress also still are better liked than their Republican counterparts by 19 points." Even so, the respondents said they believe the GOP will win the House despite their expressed voter preferences. Maybe they've heard the prediction broadcast in their ear.  From other surveys: CBS/NYT gives the GOP a 2-point edge. Gallup and AP give Republicans a bigger margin.

The most interesting poll is the one you've never heard of, by the Barna Group, an evangelical polling outfit (Ventura, Calif).

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Democrats Beat Republicans in Yet Another Poll Email Print

Based on falling congressional approval ratings, Republicans have been publicly implying that Americans don't like Congress since the Democrats gained control in January. In fact, congressional Republicans have far lower approval ratings than Democrats.

Given the recent polling data, Republicans should stop speciously pointing fingers and start asking: 1) why do most Americans view us negatively, and 2) what can we actually do to change that?

Last week's Gallup poll found that more American's trusted Democrats over Republicans to do a better overall job and to handle national security and prosperity. The new Washington Post/ABC poll results contain similarly bad news for Republicans.

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American Dissatisfaction and the Peaceful Grassroots Revolution Email Print

The American people are very dissatisfied with the present state of affairs in their country. Polls taken in July revealed that less than 20 percent of Americans approve of the direction in which the United States is going. Furthermore, they are not naive as to the reason for this wrong direction: well over half the citizenry understands that a few billionaire tycoons have rigged our political system and media in order to advance their unfettered global business interests.

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Generic Ballot Polls: Democrats Surge 16.5 Points Past Republicans Email Print

Just as Republicans were preparing their talking points to tout a tightening of the so-called 'generic ballot' (a poll that aims to determine the electorates' general preference for party control), along comes a spider.

Over the weekend, the GOP was smiling about polls from Pew and ABC that showed a Democratic lead over the Republicans of only 4% and 6% respectively - But that picture has changed dramatically.

From Politicalwire:

  • The latest Fox News poll gives Democrats an edge on the generic congressional ballot, where they lead Republicans, 49 percent to 36 percent. The survey also showed Democrats were more excited about the elections, and more motivated to vote, than their Republican counterparts. "More Democrats (37% ) than Republicans (26%) say they are extremely interested in tomorrow's elections, and more Democrats (89%) than Republicans (81%) say they plan to vote for their party's candidate in their district."

  • CNN's final national poll before the elections shows President Bush's approval rating dipping to 35 percent and Democrats leading Republicans on the generic congressional ballot, 58 percent to 38 percent.

The average of these two polls gives Democrats a massive 16.5 point advantage over Republicans with just hours until the voting booths open.


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Polls: Strong Chance of Democratic Senate Email Print

With consensus wisdom already handing the House to the Democrats, polls are still indicating that a Senate pickup for the Democrats is a totally reasonable outcome of tomorrow's elections.

At a glance, the polls below (coupled with the historical tendency of 1) undecideds tend to break for the challenger, and 2) an incumbent held under 50% in the polls is in serious trouble) suggest:

Democrats Safe: Connecticut, Michigan, Minnesota, Montana, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania

Democrat Lean: Missouri

Toss-Up: Maryland, Rhode Island, Virginia

Republican Safe: Tennessee

In an anti-Bush, anti-Iraq, anti-Republican, anti-incumbent election cycle -- like this one is, the Toss-ups are truly the challengers to lose.

Look for a Democratic Senate come January 2007.

As you peruse the polls below, you might notice that many of the races are statistically too close to call. That means two factors will take over in the final hours:

1) GOTV efforts which have been highly touted on both sides of the aisle.

2) Voter enthusiasm. Who will be more likely to turn their opinions into actual voting. Democrats or Republicans?

Connecticut: Lieberman will take this one, holding large leads over challenger Ned Lamont. Independent Lieberman will caucus with the Democrats.

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Gallup Poll: Democrats Set to Sweep Congress Email Print

On election eve 2006, The USA Today is highlighting the parallels between Democrats in 2006 with the Republicans in 1994 - a year when Republicans seized control of the house with a massive pickup in seats.

They site a new Gallup poll that finds:

  • Then, likely voters by 51%-44% favored GOP congressional candidates. Now, 51%-44% favor Democratic ones.

  • Then, disapproval of Congress was at 66%. Now, disapproval of Congress is at 70%."

  • Then, 52% said they were paying "quite a lot" of attention to the elections, the highest since the Gallup Poll began asking the question in 1958. Now, 50% say they are paying "quite a lot" of attention.

  • Six of 10 Americans say they are dissatisfied with the way things are going in the country.

  • By 2-1 they say national issues, not local and state ones, are determining their vote.

  • And on the dominant national issue, 56% call the decision to invade Iraq a mistake.

  • 36% of likely voters say that are casting a ballot for a candidate to send a message that they oppose Bush; 20% to send a message that they support him.

  • By 40%-33%, likely voters in the USA TODAY Poll say the country would be better off if Democrats, not Republicans, controlled Congress.

This election is about Bush and Iraq. Either you're for Bush's handling of Iraq, or you're against it.


Dishonest Polling Practices are Undermining our Democracy Email Print

On August 1, the California's eminent "non-partisan" polling organization, the Field Poll, released a new poll on voter preferences in six "down ballot" state constitutional office races; Lt Governor, Treasurer, Secretary of State, Attorney General, Controller, and Insurance Commissioner.

Theis year there are six parties that have "ballot qualified" candidates running in each of these races, the American Independent Party, the Democratic Party, the Green Party, the Libertarian Party, the Republican Party, and the Peace & Freedom Party.

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Poll Numbers Down? Gay bash! Email Print

Ongoing mayhem in Iraq, ENRON buddies waiting to learn how many years they'll spend in jail, VP Cheney's former Leaker in Chief awaiting trial, gas prices soaring, hurricane season starting, and what does President Bush decide to speak out about?

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Bush Blames War for his Abysmal Approval Numbers Email Print

When asked on NBC Nightly News why his approval ratings were so low, President Bush said, "Because we're at war. And war unsettles people."

GOP strategist Ed Gillespie, however, begs to differ. When asked on Larry King Live about Republican plummeting poll numbers, Gillespie said, "I think that has something to do with gas prices that have gone over $3 per gallon..."

And then there is Rep. Chris Shays who said (also on Larry King Live), "Let me just say that I think the thing that has hurt the President most is not Iraq. It's Katrina. People saw an arrogant but confident Administration but when they saw Katrina they saw arrogance and frankly incompetence and that was very unsettling."

So take your pick, is it Bush's War, Bush's Gas, Bush's arrogance, or Bush's incompetence?

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Freefall: The GOP Ratings Plunge Email Print

Read and rejoice: the President's approval rating dropped to 29% in a recent WSJ/Harris poll. This is particularly notable because it's a 6% drop in the President's approval ratings since the same poll given last month. Ouch.

That's a nice figure to see in an election year. The only thing I want to know is why the White House approval ratings dropped off so much. It's really significant, and it can be useful going into November to know the other side's weaknesses.

In other words, it's time for the nonstop thrill ride that is opinion poll analysis. Whee. In all seriousness, though, there's some really interesting stuff in here, and we're going to unravel it so you don't have to.

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Democrats Should Eat a Baby Email Print

I know this seems like the pages of dusty history, but it was just two years ago that W was polling above 50% and people shrugged off even his most outrageous actions.  It wasn't that long ago that anyone criticizing Bush was looked on a spoilsport, an angry outsider, just another playa' hata' in the game of America.

In those frustrating days (and they were long days), there was much speculation about what it would take for people to wake up to the combination of self-assured stupidity and mindless evil that made up the Bush administration.  A few even mulled the idea that Bush could take up barbequing infants on the White House lawn without giving up a majority on Gallup.

But here's the thing -- it wasn't passing unpopular laws and unpopular policies that finally brought Bush low in the polls.  It was the incompetence displayed in carried out his edicts that made people doubt the emperor's sartorial splendor, not the wackiness of his proclamations.

Now, odd as it sounds, as Democrats make the run toward 2006 and beyond, they need to take a lesson from Bush.  They need to sharpen up the utensils and track down a juicy baby.

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Poll: Americans Support Strikes Against Iran 48%-42% Email Print

A new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll shows that "despite Iraq, Americans don't reject strikes against a nuclear Iran. By 48%-42%, public says U.S. should join coalition to attack Iran's nuclear capability if Tehran approaches development of a weapon."

Are 48% of the American people smoking crack? Seriously.

Wake up and read this post, "Bush's Five-Point Plan to Invade IRAN - Copyright 2003"

In the meantime, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said, "We want nuclear technology for peace and progress of nations, and if some believe that they can prevent us with psychological warfare and resolutions, they are mistaken."

But things look bleak as Iran yesterday " defy any United Nations Security Council resolution on its nuclear activities on the eve of a major report by atomic inspectors on the status of its nuclear program." Javad Zarif, the Iranian ambassador to the United Nations said, "Iran would consider illegitimate any Council resolution calling on Iran to stop uranium enrichment that invoked the so-called Chapter 7 clause, which could open the door to penalties and possibly to military action."

48%? Are people really that afraid? Are there that many cowards crossing our daily paths?


Do 85% of the troops REALLY think that? Email Print

A recent Zogby poll has been getting a fair amount of press because 72% of soldiers say they want to come home.  That is understandable, and not all that newsworthy.  What is stunning to me is why the soldiers think they are Iraq.  

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New MSNBC poll Email Print

MSNBC has posted a new poll for the Question of the Day on the the Dubai Ports Deal.

Should we "trust" the President or abandon this pig?

You know what to do.


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