Political Cortex: Brain Food for the Body Politic

Here's one reason: Forrester's using one of the themes that Democrats are planning to unleash in 2006. Only he's inverting the party roles.

Forrester's big theme is corruption - actually, the "culture of corruption." That's what he called New Jersey's (Democratic) establishment in 2004, when he declared for governor. "These people deserve leadership that will end the culture of corruption and reverse years of fiscal mismanagement." Coincidentally, that's the exact talking point Democrats use when they talk about the party of Tom DeLay. But back to Forrester.

At the time this seemed like wishful thinking - according to the New York-based Quinnipiac poll, 52% of New Jersyans were satisfied with the way the state was going, and were hardly discontent with scandal-soaked, resigned Gov. Jim McGreevey (44-47 approval) or the legislature (41-41 approval). But Forrester and the other Republican candidates hammered the Dems for perceived corruption throughout the year, aided by the stumbles of local politicians and a minor Corzine scandal (a multimillionare, he gave $500k of his own money to his girlfriend who was an NJ union head. In New Jersey, where trust in government has been going down since Woodrow Wilson was governor, you might doubt this stuff worked.

But work it did. Corzine's personal approval ratings have fallen from 58-23 last year to 39-29  today (with 24% mixed opinions). A whopping 96% of voters consider NJ government corruption a "serious" issue - 64% "very serious." And 50% of voters consider the NJ Democrats corrupt, compared to 18% who think that of state Republicans.

All this hasn't been enough to elect Forrester - his polls stopped rising two weeks ago, and Corzine is maintaining a 7-9 lead. But it made a contender out of a candidate who only had 29% of voters ready to vote for him when he declared, and it's damaged New Jersey's Democratic establishment in ways that will be seen when voters decide on downticket races.

What lessons can Democrats draw from this? Well, as things stand they're going to spend 2006 running against a Republican party and White House whose officials are all under investigation for various scandals. In most states (ie, every state except New Jersey and Illinois), the Democratic parties have no such scandals dragging them down. What can they learn from Doug Forrester?

1. Don't listen to the other guys. Republicans and pundits have been complaining for months
that Democrats have no ideas and are baselessly, negatively attacking the GOP. They doth protest too much - those attacks work.

2. Everyone loves guilt by association. One of Forrester's key ads shows Corzine as the spoke of a "Wheel o' Corruption" that spins around and stops on various corrupt officials, some of whom Corzine isn't even connected with. Thanks to years and years of message discipline and Tom DeLay's burst-pinata style of candidate donations, nearly every Republican candidate can be legimately linked to the scandal-ridden House GOP and White House.
   
3. Offer an alternative. Forrester's "culture of corruption" theme has been balanced by his promises to clean up government and cut property taxes. I'm sure Democrats weren't thinking of running on corruption and nothing else, but it's important that the insurgent candidate running against corruption can articulate a few (2-4 seem to be the standard) policy prescriptions that voters will be excited to see them act on.

Does it feel odd, ripping campaign tactics from a Republican? Hey, turnabout is fair play. Click on Forrester's website and check out his slogan. "Take Back New Jersey" sounds like a certain Democratic candidate who everyone wrote off, doesn't it?