Political Cortex: Brain Food for the Body Politic

One reason Bush's pants were in a twist on Friday is that his poll numbers on honesty have been swishing down the toilet, including this new AP-Ipsos poll that came out Friday:

Two crucial pillars of President Bush's public support -- perceptions of his honesty and faith in his ability to fight terrorism -- have slipped to their lowest point... Almost six in 10 now say Bush is not honest, and a similar number say his administration does not have high ethical standards.

It is telling that the number of people who think Bush is dishonest is almost identical to the number who no longer have "faith in his ability to fight terrorism."  This is not just coincidence.  One political scientist commenting on the AP-Ipsos poll states:

"Honesty is a huge issue because even people who disagreed with his policies respected his integrity," said Bruce Buchanan, a political scientist from the University of Texas.

This is entirely wrong.  Those who oppose Bush's policies have doubted his honesty for some time.  It is those who have agreed with him that have accorded him the benefit of the doubt. Look at the demographics of the poll:

Whites, 46 percent, were more likely than minorities, 31 percent, to say Bush is honest. Just over half of whites said he is not honest, while 69 percent of blacks felt that way. Southerners, 51 percent, were more likely than those in other regions to say Bush is honest. In other regions, it was 40 percent or less. Those who make more than $50,000 a year are more likely than those who make less than that to say Bush is honest.

Those who agree with Bush's policies or those who benefit from them are the ones who believe Bush is a man of integrity.  It is only those who agree with the GOP's alternate reality or benefit from it that think Bush is ethical. It is a voter's view of Bush's policies that drives that voter's views of his honesty, not vice-versa.  It is whether they approve of his job as President or not that determines whether they think he is ethical or not.

So as Bush's job approval numbers go down, his honesty numbers plunge accordingly and in tandem.

What has sent Bush's numbers tanking?  In one word, Katrina.  At least Katrina as the final act in a sequence.

In June and July, Bush was faced with the re-emergence of the Plame leak as a major story.  Rove was shown definitively to be involved in the leak, yet Bush did not fire him or even reprimand him.  Instead, he and McClellan stonewalled behind "an active investigation."  This alone, however, was not enough to do to send Bush's honesty numbers tumbling.

In August, Cindy Sheehan's vigil in Crawford put Iraq back front and center in the news.  And the news from Iraq was not good.  More chaos.  More violence.  More casualties.  More scandal.

Then just as August was ending Katrina smashed into the Gulf Coast.  Katrina, and FEMA's reaction to it, ripped the facade off of Bush's competence and made it clear to many Bush voters that Bush was unlikely to be able to protect us from terror if he couldn't even protect people from the after effects of a hurricane.

During his re-election bid in 2004, Bush skillfully wove the public's trust of him and faith in his handling of the terror threat into a winning campaign over Democrat John Kerry.


Now, 56 percent disapprove of the way Bush is handling foreign policy and the war on terrorism, the poll found. Overall, 37 percent approve of the job Bush is doing as president.

People who last year wanted to believe Bush because they wanted to believe he could keep them safe now realize that he can't keep them safe.  Now the emotional pull for them is to believe he is dishonest rather than honest, because if he is unethical and dishonest, then their vote for him -- which they feel buyers remorse for -- was obtained under false pretenses.

The entire emotional equation has changed.  Last year voters ignored facts and reality so they could believe Bush.  Now reality has smacked them in the face and they are hungry for reasons not to believe Bush. They don't want to feel responsible for the debacle that is the Bush presidency for they belatedly realize that he has made them less safe not more.

It is obvious that the White House can't or won't recognize this changed dynamic, but it is vital that Democrats do, especially looking forward to 2006.

People are at last open to seeing that Bush lied us into war, so Democrats have to continue to push the Phase II investigation into pre-war intelligence, the CIA leak investigation, the Niger forgeries story, and even bring back the Downing Street memos if possible.  Even more importantly, Democrats who voted for the war have to come out and admit they were mistaken in their votes and explain that they were misled as much as the American people.  We can't afford any more Chuck Schumer moments of "I would have voted for it anyway."

Democrats have to keep focus on Republican incompetence and cronyism.  We can't let the voters who have finally realized that the Emperor has no clothes forget just how naked he and his Republican Congress really are.

Finally, Democrats have to show how we are different.  We have to focus on how we are competent.  How we will keep people safe and fight the war on terror intelligently and effectively.  We also have to show how we will make people's everyday lives here at home better and how we will be honest with them even when the other side is not.

In other words, we have to tell people the truth about what Democrats really believe and do now that they are, at last, emotionally ready to hear it.