Political Cortex: Brain Food for the Body Politic

The philosophy of the Republicans, as delivered so eloquently by Grover Norquist, is to reduce the size of the government until they can "drown it in a bathtub."  Toward that end, they need to get rid the government of some of those pesky functions: like Medicare, Social Security, and public education.   But these programs are actually quite popular.  How could the radicals affect such a change?

They dare not attack these "problems" directly.  Oh, sure, there's a hard-core group of loyalists willing to toss babies off rooftops to free them from the "burden of the poor," but the average American -- even the average Republican voter - hasn't quite done the requisite grinchification of the heart required to completely excise their social consciousness and empathy.  

No, the "conservatives" came up with another way to tackle things they didn't like.  They would lure these programs onto the "rocks," breaking them so badly that taking them out of their misery seemed the right thing to do.

The Estate Tax is a primary example of the Republican "wrecker" strategy.  Sure, framing this as the "death tax" gets a lot of credit for how Republicans were able to take a program that affected only a tiny minority of the most wealthy tax payers and turn it into something opposed by middle class voters, but it was just as vital to see that the system was wrecked before it was attacked.  How?  By preventing anyone from navigating this tax out of danger.  Several proposals were on the table which would have adjusted the limits of the Estate Tax, assuring that it continued to only affect a handful of people each year.  By making sure none of those programs passed, Republicans were able to let inflation work to their advantage.  Each year, the cut off line of the Estate Tax took in more and more families (Even so, had the tax not been suspended, the number of business and/or farm related estates to hit even the lowest level of the tax would have been around 440 in 2004).  Rather than allowing it to move up, the Republicans made sure that the tax affected as many people as possible.  When exemptions were proposed to prevent any loss of small farms or family businesses -- the very people the Republicans had used in their ads against the tax -- they made sure these exemptions never came to pass.

They had to keep the tax on the rocks, so they had the excuse to condemn it, tear it apart, and pick over the bones.

The very same forces are currently at work on the Alternative Minimum Tax.  When this tax was put in place, it was intended to affect only a very few, very high income families.  However, because the system is complex and doesn't account for inflation, the number of people affected each year has been increasing.  In the last couple of years, the AMT has reached into the middle class.  It will hit more than 3 million families in 2005, and by 2006 it will affect a huge swatch of taxpayers.

To give you a sense of just who might get caught, this year only 1.8 percent of married couples with two kids and an adjusted gross income between $75,000 and $100,000 will be subject to AMT. Next year, that number jumps to 73.4 percent.

The tax is intended to keep those at the top of the scale from avoiding paying their share through complex dodges.  Obviously, the problem of the AMT crowding down on the middle class could be easily fixed.   The wreakers don't want it fixed.  They intend to leave the AMT as it is, steering it onto the rocks, so they have an excuse to get rid of it altogether

These are the easy wrecks.  No one likes a tax, especially a complex tax that might -- just might -- one day affect them or their kids.  Wreaking taxes is like shooting fish in a barrel (to mix two maritime metaphors).  However, this is only the warm up.  Republicans are getting out the big spotlights and hoping to use the same techniques on the three things that really get under Norquist's skin.

Social Security -- obviously, Bush already tried to attack this system once.  The trouble for the Republicans is that Social Security is in too good a shape.  In wreaker terms, this ship is still far out at sea, and signaling that it might get in trouble decades from now is not enough incentive to let them run it onto the rocks today.  For now, they've packed away the fake lighthouses, but they're just waiting for another chance.

Medicare -- here the wrecking crew has been more effective.   The nature of the program has allowed them to steal from the program at both ends, forcing it into crisis ahead of schedule.  Because the Republicans have already passed laws that keep this ship from being helped -- for example, by not allowing the government to negotiate on drug prices -- they've assured that it will continue to leak at an ever greater pace.  And they're only too happy to toss in a drug "discount" program that gives few benefits to seniors but increases the burden on the program.  The wreckers have done a bang-up job on Medicare.  This ship is almost guaranteed to smash on the rocks within the next few years.  Then it will be "gee, we'd love to keep this up, but it's proved to be an expensive failure.  Instead, have this plan to put everyone on an HMO."  In fact, Medicare is heading for disaster so fast, that it's going to take singular focus and heroic action to save it.

Public Education -- this is the big prize, the Queen Mary of ships to be wrecked.  Forget Social Security, wrecking public education fits all the Republican desires.  It reinforces the class structure, demonstrates the superiority of private enterprise, and continues the broader Republican War on Knowledge (tm).  There are two ways in which the Republicans are assuring the fall of public education: by opposing things that can reform the system, and by giving us miles of rope when we get out to hang ourselves.  Want programs, funds, or federal guidance that will really help to improve public education and make schools work?  No way.  Want complex programs that are somehow intended to help a) the power of local school boards, b) equal education of kids with problems, c) heavy reliance on subjective testing?  Sure, take two.  The goal is to make sure that the average family is so frustrated with what their kids are not getting out of the local school, that any alternative looks like a good alternative.  On this front, the wreckers are winning big time.  Even constituencies that can't tolerate the Republicans on other fronts are willing to go with them on this one.  Why?  Because Democrats have cooperated in making many public schools into little hells on earth.

How do you stop the wreckers?  By blowing away the fog and letting people see the alternatives.  This is the "what's the Democratic response" part of the solution.  If you want to keep the ships off the rocks, you have to have a real lighthouse somewhere along the coast.   It's not enough to denounce the wreckers, you have to offer a safe harbor.

On the tax issues, it's easy enough to point out what's wrong.  Forcefully and constantly show how relatively minor changes in the formula will fix the problem.  Don't let the Republicans conflate making a course adjustment with completely wrecking the ship.  The same thing holds true of Social Security.  Step up, show how small changes can actually fix the issue, and put the bill on the table (not now, because the projected problems are too far out to make accurate predications, but some time before making the changes turns into an emergency maneuver).

For Medicare, things are harder.  The rocky coast is so near, and the shoals to navigate so dire, that it's going to take some careful sailing to avoid disaster.  Changes will be needed at the state level as well as the federal, and some of the ridiculous legislation designed to lock the ship on course will have to be repealed.  Honestly, the best prospect for saving Medicare is to rescue it as part of a broader national health care initiative, and despite all the problems with health care, that might not be possible until a lot more families have drowned.

On education, the situation is worsening rapidly.  The wreakers are always at work on this front.  They've even taken advantage of the situation in New Orleans to break apart what remains of the public system there and route more kids into private hands.  They're using plans like "no child left behind" to drive systems into pursuing minutia at the expense of real learning.  Saving public education is going to be a daunting task (all this ship talk made the use of "daunting" seem mandatory).  I have my ideas, but they're cold, cruel, and you're going to hate them.

Then again, you can't be too delicate when dealing with wreckers.  The penalty for those caught at this game in real life has always been death.  Our modern wreckers deserve no less.

Metaphorically, of course.