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It Doesn't Feel As Good Pulling Out Email Print

By Pounder
11/14/2005 10:02:29 PM EST

Ohio 2nd Blogger has a post up titled "First Substantive Clash in Senate Primary". Go read it and come back.

I don't have a subscription for the article, but assuming the excerpt is representative of the articles main thrust the differences between Brown and Hackett's Iraq war position hardly seem substantive.

Let's be clear. George Bush and his Republican allies lied us into the Iraq war, and once there have spectacularly lost it. Iraq is broken and cannot be fixed by the United States. What to do now is the big question of the day. Iraq is the single biggest issue this country faces. From the continuing loss of life, to the economic drain.

There are only 3 basic Democratic party postions on Iraq as far as i can tell. The "we have to stay until the candy and flowers finally turn up" fools, the "I know it's a mistake but i am a coward to say so bunch" which until recently included John Kerry and John Edwards. Finally the "Iraq is a mistake we must put right - by getting out" group - the only group that is growing in number. Both Brown and Hackett belong to this group.

Now the real big issue isn't should we get out, but how and when. The when seems obvious, ASAP. How is a far more difficult problem to solve - because Iraq is broken.

If we could magically bring all the troops home, how does one ensure that tensions in the Turkish kurd population doesnt cause Turkish intervention into the Iraqi kurdish region ? It is clear that Iraq is becoming an Iranian client state, how do we suppress the influence of Iran on places like Saudi Arabia and Kuwait ? How do we prevent the flow of arms and combatants from Iran, Iraq and Syria pouring into palestine and ultimately Israel ? High unemployment and disenfranchisement of the Iraq youth is going to lead to islamic radicalization for a generation. Internal civil war seems like the least of our problems. Regional destabilization is the prime concern.

Given these geopolitical realities talk of an early exit from Iraq is, while militarily possible, probably isnt practically possible. We are going to need significant cooperation in the middle east to cover our ass as we withdraw - not something that is likely given our current diplomatic skills and relationships.

Brown co-sponsored the "Homeward Bound Act" - the act talked about in the OH-02 article. The requirements of which are
   *    The President shall implement the policy expressed in section 3 by--

    *    (1) taking all necessary steps to ensure the completion of Iraq's political transition to a constitutionally elected government by December 31, 2005, as called for in United Nations Security Council Resolution 1546 (2004), which was supported by the United States;

    *    (2) establishing a plan for the withdrawal of all United States Armed Forces from Iraq limited only by steps to ensure the safety of such Armed Forces;

    *    (3) establishing a plan for a transition of responsibility for internal security activities to the military forces of the Iraqi Government and a transition of United States military personnel to an advisory and support role;

    *    (4) accelerating the training and equipping of the military and security forces of the Iraqi Government; and

    *    (5) taking all appropriate measures to account for any missing members of the United States Armed Forces or United States citizens in Iraq prior to completion of the withdrawal of United States Armed Forces from Iraq.

Does that sound like something we really want this current incompetent administration to plan ? Does it sound like something they could plan with all those geopolitical realities in mind ?

Getting out of Vietnam was easy, there were no real consequences - distinctly not the case with Iraq, and why so many warned against this misadventure in the first place.

Bush isn't going to withdraw significantly from Iraq, least of all because he has no answers for these problems. We are only going to get out of Iraq either with a new President committed to doing so with large bipartisan support, or by the congress withholding the money as they did in the final years of Vietnam - anything else is just happy talk.

For a serious plan on how to get out of Iraq, this would be a good place to begin - Strategic Redeployment, A Progressive Plan for Iraq and the Struggle Against Violent Extremists.

How to get out of Iraq is a far more important question to answer than when. Hackett appears to answer the military component which is a good start, but both he and Brown (and DeWine) must address the how in terms of dealing with the geopolitical consequences too. That's the real debate i am looking forward to.

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It Doesn't Feel As Good Pulling Out | 7 comments (7 topical, editorial, 0 hidden)
Sorry, but the CAP plan ... (5.00 / 2)
...of the liberal hawks for extricating the U.S. from Iraq over a two-year period will do exactly nothing to stabilize the situation, and it means at least another 1000 dead Americans and tens of thousands of dead Iraqis under American occupation.

Let's face it, the Iraqi Kurds are already, de facto, separate from Iraq. And the Shi'a likely will be running their own enclave soon. This means the old British lines of demarcation will collapse of their own contradictions; the countervailing forces are simply too weak to hold Iraq together.

As many of us warned the minute Bush started publicly agitating for war with Iraq three and a half years ago, an invasion would destabilize the regional balance of power. Bush has given the Osamites he pledged to crush two and a half years of practice in fighting a urban guerrilla war against the greatest fighting machine on the planet, learning the U.S. military's vulnerabilities, to the detriment of our fellow Americans in uniform.

The Democrats need a strategic redeployment plan that removes our soldiers from harm's way in the shortest possible time-frame. If staying longer would make a difference, I might be persuaded to support such a move. But there's zero evidence that staying longer will make a difference.

by Meteor Blades on 11/15/2005 11:54:22 AM EST

CAP's plan aint perfect (none / 0)
I agree, which is why i said it was a place to start. I did notice our Senate Dems talking about "redeployment" yesterday rather than withdrawal and i think that is smart.

that all said, a Dem plan is pointless other than as a campaign tool, because they have zero power to implement it - which is perhaps why CAPs plan in terms of time frame might be more realistic.

And by the time we have the power to change the Iraq plan those 2 years will have passed by aimlessly and we could then go for the fast way out, under the cover of being ignored.

Before we can even begin to address the foreign policy issue we have to be in a domestic political position to do so. aint happening for at least 12 months and maybe 36.

Blogging the 2006 Ohio Senate Race

by Pounder on 11/15/2005 06:42:00 PM EST

[ Parent ]
Homeward Bound Act (none / 0)
Implementing this gives too many options and requires... what was that called again?  Oh yeah, competence.

In making a plan to be used by this administration, it should start with "THIS END UP" and proceed like directions for assembling a model car.  Keep it simple, make it explicit, don't give any wiggle room.

 

by Devilstower on 11/14/2005 11:41:57 PM EST

IT's soooo Frustrating (none / 0)
The president was repeatedly warned about going in without an "exit strategy." It wasn't just the pansy Dems, unless Scowcroft, Schwartzkopf, and Zinni somehow shape-shifted.

Now, we're just screwed whatever we do, I fear.

   

by D Cupples on 11/15/2005 12:38:32 AM EST

Some humility in order...? (none / 1)
The grand plans of the admin have exploded, with 2,000 US soldiers dead, 12,000 badly maimed, tens of thousands of Iraqis dead, and  presumably hundreds of thousands injured or maimed for life.  This in a country that began the war with a population of 21millions (as I recall).  The arguments that "we can't just pull out without ensuring an orderly transition" have sometimes made sense to me, but I guess, in looking at the above stats, I'm thinking How Much Worse could it get, with us now famous for torure and the use of white phosphorus on civilians?  Does anyone really think that the majority of the Arab world would be anything but greatful if we left ASAP and let the Iraqis have a hand at sorting things out amongst themselves? Civil war already exists over there, under the addes indignity of American occupaton that has no end in sight and an enormous weapons advantage and little interest in anything called the Geneva Conventions.  We now know it was exactly the right thing to do to leave Vietnam, though the same catastrophic predictions were made.  OOOOH! they'll go communist.  Ironically, what we most have to fear from them is the capitalist imperative that has all of North Carolina's furniture factories relocating to Vietnam, etc etc. Rumsfeld's predictions of a cakewalk are clearly laughable now--maybe what we need now is humility: we don't know what will happen if we leave, but we can stop being part of an atrocious act of aggression and the installation of puppets.

by MmeVoltaire on 11/15/2005 01:46:30 PM EST

I wish I could rate the TITLE. (none / 0)


Fookin' brilliant.

-9.63, -7.03... Rage, rage against the Lying of the Right at MLW

by Maryscott OConnor on 11/16/2005 12:20:33 PM EST

heh. (none / 1)
I wrote that with you in mind

Blogging the 2006 Ohio Senate Race

by Pounder on 11/16/2005 08:40:18 PM EST

[ Parent ]
It Doesn't Feel As Good Pulling Out | 7 comments (7 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)
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