Political Cortex: Brain Food for the Body Politic

Republicans have no other choice but to come up with a way to get the troops out of Iraq by the 06 elections. There is no way they would let their party go to the polls in November without showing progress in Iraq.

And because we're not in a war where one side surrenders, progress has to be measured in other ways. The plan to win, as the President told us, relies on trainging Iraqi forces:

Our military strategy is clear: We will train Iraqi security forces so they can defend their freedom and protect their people, and then our troops will return home with the honor they have earned.

Easy enough. Or not.

Because as we learned in late September, 2005, the training is not going so well:

The number of Iraqi army battalions that can fight insurgents without U.S. and coalition help has dropped from three to one, top U.S. generals told Congress yesterday, adding that the security situation in Iraq is too uncertain to predict large-scale American troop withdrawals anytime soon.

...Officials did not say specifically why two battalions are no longer rated at Level 1 and thus unable to operate on their own. They said generally readiness ratings can change for numerous reasons, such as if a commander resigns, or if more training is needed. Casey also said that the "Iraqi armed forces will not have an independent capability for some time."

Delve deeper into the military's report to Congress (note: PDF), and the numbers sound even worse, with Iraqi forces "in the lead" covering a total of just about 540 square miles:

Since the last report, Iraqi forces have taken responsibility for security in several areas  of Iraq and now have the lead in one Iraqi province, roughly 87 square miles of  Baghdad and over 450 square miles in other provinces. (page 4)

The report states "192,000 Iraqis have been trained and equipped as members of the police and  military forces," but the Iraqi government calls for an "end-state combined total force structure for the Ministry of  Defense (MOD) and the Ministry of Interior of 325,000" (page 27-28). Which means we're not even 60% of the way there, regardless of how much training those forces have.

Current Ministry of Defense forces are approximately 88,000 (page 27), and projected end-state levels are 131,000 (page 31). Out of those 88,000, only 36 battalions are "In The Lead or Fully Independent" (page 30). That's less than half. And from the WaPo story we know that really only one of those battalions is currently fully independent.

The point of all this is that if our withdrawal from Iraq is hanging on training Iraqi forces to "stand up," at the rate we're going we'll be in Iraq for a long time. Politically, that cannot happen, because the President has not prepared the American people for such a protracted battle. He's encouraged us to shop, not sacrifice.

So John Murtha's prediction is smart. The Republicans will find some way to declare victory and bring the troops home.

And therefore Murtha's plan is politically savvy, because he's gotten the Republicans to follow him, even though only they, as the majority, have the power to end the war.

Murtha's plan is also morally correct. For keeping our troops in an untenable situation, where they cause more harm than good, is anything but supporting the troops.

Election Day 2006 -- sounds right on the money.