Political Cortex: Brain Food for the Body Politic

I believe in doubt.  Or at least, I'm pretty sure I do.

People talk about doubt like it's a bad thing, but doubt is not just good -- it's essential.  Every pilot who goes down the checklist a final time, every scientist who reruns an experiment, every pharmacist who stops to double check a prescription, and every policeman who bothers to investigate an alibi, is working in the service of doubt.  More lives were saved by doubters than ever were by people who were sure of themselves.

Doubt's the father of curiosity.  Everyone knew that heavy objects and light objects fell at the same rate.  Only Galileo doubted enough to climb that tower and check it out.

Doubt is the guardian of truth.  Without doubt, who would ever bother to follow up, drill down, or push aside the fog and find out what's really going on?  When someone is playing you for a fool, the first thing they have to do is make you trust them.  Don't want to be a fool?  Keep your doubt.

Doubt leads to thinking ahead.  If you're planning for the future, the last thing you want is a room for of rosy optimists -- people who just know it's all going to turn out okay.  You think the people who built the Titanic did enough doubting?  What about the people who planned the war in Iraq?  

People who are certain always want to badmouth doubt.  "You have to have confidence," they say.  "Hold fast, stay the course, never let a doubt enter your pretty little mind."  People who are certain are dangerous.

It's those certain, confident, non-doubters who cause all the trouble.  They already know they're right, so damn the evidence, don't bother to read that report, full speed ahead!  Certain people take risks without even knowing they're at risk, and they're happy to take the rest of us along for the ride.  Give certain people evidence that they're wrong, and they'll just dismiss it, because they already know the truth.  Certain people will throw the first punch, because they know they're in the right.  Certain people don't have a problem with locking you up, because they already know you're a bad guy.  Certain people don't have an issue with bombing you or shooting you or burning your house down, because they know their cause is just.

Certain people are just certain that if we keep doing it their way, eventually everything will be good, and we'll see that they were always right.  And they know they're right.

Being certain is right next door to being proud, and it there's one thing I'm certain about, it's that whoever put together the list of deadly sins had it right when he put pride at the front of that list.  Certain people are confident in their beliefs, secure in their own smugness, and blinded to anything that doesn't fit their ideas.  That's a certain case for diaster,  What's needed is a good dose of humility -- also known as doubt.   You know, you just might not be right all the time.  In fact, I'm pretty sure you're not.

I'd like to think I'd convinced certain people to think again, to double check a few of their assumptions, and take one more look before they leap.  But I doubt it.