Political Cortex: Brain Food for the Body Politic

Expectations - Kilgore was the favorite in this race for nearly four years. As soon as he was elected Attorney General in a 60-40 landslide in 2001, local wags expected him to win the state back for conservatives from the fluke governership of Democrat Mark Warner.

But it didn't work out that way. First, Warner became one of the most popular governors in America after he raised taxes and in turn helped the state gather a huge budget surplus. Then George W. Bush's popularity started to crater - today it's in the 40s in this classic red state. And finally, Kilgore proved to be a lousy candidate for the top of the ballot - unsure, flip-flopping, and a bad debater. Kaine started 10-12 points behind Kilgore when the race began, but as Virginians head to the polls he's the narrow favorite. Kilgore trails in all polling, but by the margin of error, and Virginia's Republicans have a mighty GOTV machine. This is a toss-up.

Details - Polls close at 7 p.m. ET and results will be here.

Ohio
Summary - Voters are deciding on 5 initiatives, and Democrats want to win the last four of them. They are:
# Issue 1: Would authorize the state to issue bonds to finance public infrastructure capital improvements for local governments.
# Issue 2: Makes it easier to vote by allowing all Ohioans to vote by mail
# Issue 3: Helps stop the influence of big money in elections by greatly reducing campaign contributions.
# Issue 4: Stops the politicians from drawing their own legislative districts and puts an Independent Commission in charge of this process.
# Issue 5: Places a bi-partisan Board of Supervisors in charge of Ohio's elections, instead of a partisan official who backs candidates and takes sides in elections.
Expectations - Brushing themselves off after the 2004 defeat, Ohio Democrats are hoping that the current subterranean poll ratings of George Bush and Ohio's Republican leaders inspire voters to reform the system. Issues 1,2 and 3 look good, issue 4 looks dicey, and issue 5 looks doomed.
Details - Polls close at 7:30 p.m. ET and results will be here.

New Jersey
Summary - Democrat Sen. Jon Corzine faces Republican Doug Forrester for governor, and both parties face off for control of the state Assembly.
Expectations - Corzine has led throughout the race - a late-breaking scandal, involving his ex-wife blaming him for the end of their marriage, seems to have damaged him only by cutting his lead from 8-9 points to 5-6 points. Add to that a mighty Democratic GOTV machine and middling Republican enthusiasm for the pro-choice Forrester, and a solid single-digit Corzine victory is expected.
Details - Polls close at 8 p.m. ET and results will be here.

New York City
Summary - Liberal Republican Mayor Mike Bloomberg faces liberal Democrat Freddy Ferrer.
Expectations - After trailing in polls for most of his term, Bloomberg got lucky in mid-2005. Ferrer told an audience of cops that there was a rush to judgment in the Amadou Diallo case, which ruptured his support among black voters. In October, Bloomberg announced that there was a credible terrorist threat against New York, and even after the threat was revealed to be bogus (the original source's claim, that is), Bloomberg's deft handling of the crisis appealed to voters. Also, Bloomberg is a billionaire who has outspent Ferrer 19-1. He'll win by 20-30 points. Fortunately, if this is Republicans' one bright spot on election night, we'll all have a lot of fun explaining why a pro-choice, pro-gay marriage, Chuck Schumer-endorsing liberal is the only kind of Republican who can win anymore.
Details - Polls close at 8 p.m. ET and results will be here.

California
Summary - Statewide, voters are deciding on a slate of ballot initiatives, four of them put there by unpopular Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (who was popular until he called this election).

The Arnold initiatives are:
# Proposition 74 - Extends the period needed for a teacher to get tenure from 2 years to 5.
# Proposition 75 - Requires unions to get written, annual consent from members before using dues in political campaigns.
# Proposition 76 - Gives the governor more power over the budget.
# Proposition 77 - Hands redistricting over to a panel of retired judges.

The other initiatives are:
# Proposition 73 - Requires clinics to notify parents if their children request abortions.
# Proposition 78 - Drug companies can enter a voluntary agreement to lower prices.
# Proposition 79 - Mandates discounts on drugs.
# Proposition 80 - Re-regulates energy.

In San Diego, voters will choose between Democrat Donna Frye and Republican Jerry Sanders to be their new mayor.
Expectations - Arnold has staked his political career on these initiatives, and Democrats are poised to defeat most of them. All of the Arnold initiatives badly trail in polls, expect for 74, which is tied. Unfortunately, all the other initiatives trail too, expect for the trojan horse 73. (It would put a clause in the California constitution about life beginning at conception.) Sanders is expected to defeat Frye, but polls in this Republican city are close.
Details - Polls close at 11 p.m. ET and results will be here.

Other races
There are contests for mayor of Detroit, Minneapolis, St. Paul, Houston, Atlanta, Boston, Buffalo and Cleveland, and Democrats will win all of them. There's a close race in Washington's King County, which includes Seattle, for County executive. Any more details or scoop? Post 'em in the comments.