Polls: Strong Chance of Democratic Senate 
At a glance, the polls below (coupled with the historical tendency of 1) undecideds tend to break for the challenger, and 2) an incumbent held under 50% in the polls is in serious trouble) suggest:
Democrats Safe: Connecticut, Michigan, Minnesota, Montana, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania
Democrat Lean: Missouri
Toss-Up: Maryland, Rhode Island, Virginia
Republican Safe: Tennessee
In an anti-Bush, anti-Iraq, anti-Republican, anti-incumbent election cycle -- like this one is, the Toss-ups are truly the challengers to lose.
Look for a Democratic Senate come January 2007.
As you peruse the polls below, you might notice that many of the races are statistically too close to call. That means two factors will take over in the final hours:
1) GOTV efforts which have been highly touted on both sides of the aisle.
2) Voter enthusiasm. Who will be more likely to turn their opinions into actual voting. Democrats or Republicans?
Connecticut: Lieberman will take this one, holding large leads over challenger Ned Lamont. Independent Lieberman will caucus with the Democrats.
Joe Lieberman (I) 52%
Ned Lamont (D) 39%
Quinnipiac poll
Joe Lieberman (I) 50%
Ned Lamont (D) 38%
SurveyUSA automated poll
Joe Lieberman (I) 49%
Ned Lamont (D) 38%
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Maryland: Two Polls Show tiny Democrat lead in a tight race.
Ben Cardin (D) 47%
Michael Steele (R) 44%
SurveyUSA
Ben Cardin (D) 47%
Michael Steele (R) 47%
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Michigan: Four Polls Show Debbie Stabenow (D) leading by a range of six to 19 points. Chalk this one up to the Democrat's column.
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Minnesota: Klobuchar all the way.
Amy Klobuchar (D) 54%
Mark Kennedy (R) 34%
Put that in the Democrat's Column.
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Missouri: Three Polls Show McCaskill With Slight Advantage.
Rasmussen
Claire McCaskill (D) 49%
Jim Talent (R) 48%
McClatchy/MSBNC
Claire McCaskill (D) 46%
Jim Talent (R) at 45%
USA Today/Gallup
Claire McCaskill (D) 49%
Jim Talent (R) at 45%
If common wisdom holds that voters break 2-1 for the challenger and that incumbents with less than 50% of the poll support are naturally in deep trouble, then put this in the democrat's column.
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Montana: The average of three polls gives Democratic Challenger Jon Tester with the lead.
Mason-Dixon/Billings Gazette
Conrad Burns (R) 47%
Jon Tester (D) 47%
Rasmussen
Conrad Burns (R) 46%
Jon Tester (D) 50%
USA Today/Gallup (Likely Voters)
Conrad Burns (R) 41%
Jon Tester (D) 50%
Given the same CW as held with the Missouri race, coupled with recent gaffes and Abramoff revelations about Conrad Burns and you can put this in the Democrat's Column.
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New Jersey: Eight Polls Show Senator Bob Menendez (D)pulling away from Republican challenger Tom Kean Jr. with leads of between two and 10 points.
Chalk this up to the Democrats.
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Ohio: Two Polls give Brown the lead.
McClatchy/MSBNC
Sherrod Brown (D) 50%
Mike DeWine (R) 44%
Rasmussen
Sherrod Brown (D) 53%
Mike DeWine (R) 41%
The Republican Party has already given up on DeWine and subsequently pulled any slated funding. Put this one in the Democrat's column.
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Pennsylvania: Santorum is down.
McClatchy/MSBNC
Bob Casey Jr. (D) 52%
Rick Santorum (R) 39%
Strategic Vision (A partisan Republican poll)
Bob Casey Jr. (D) 52%
Rick Santorum (R) 40%
This goes to the Democrats.
Rhode Island: This is a tight one.
McClatchy/MSBNC
Lincoln Chafee (R) 46%
USA Today/Gallup
Lincoln Chafee (R) 45%
This is a tight one, but using the common wisdom of past elections, the tip leans to the Democratic challenger.
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Tennessee: The average of three polls gives the lead to Corker.
McClatchy/MSBNC
Bob Corker Jr. (R) 50%
Rasmussen
Bob Corker Jr. (R) 49%
Chalk this one up to the Republican column, which would designate a 'hold' for the GOP since this seat was vacated by Republican Bill Frist.
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Sheldon Whitehouse (D) 45%
Sheldon Whitehouse (D) 48%
Harold Ford Jr. (D) 38%
Harold Ford Jr. (D) 4638%
Virginia: Three polls show a very tight race.
Mason-Dixon
Jim Webb (D) 46%
George Allen (R) 45%
USA Today/Gallup
Jim Webb (D) 46%
George Allen (R) 49%
Rasmussen
Jim Webb (D) 49%
George Allen (R) 49%
These polls indicate a true toss-up.
KEYWORDS: Congress, Polls, Democrats, Republicans, Election 2006
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