Political Cortex: Brain Food for the Body Politic

SENATE: Democrats Pick up an astounding 6 seats and take the majority away from the Republicans.

HOUSE: Democrats Pick up at least 29 seats.

GOVERNORSHIPS: Democrats strengthen their numbers by 6 governorships.

STATE LEGISLATURES: Democrats won approximately 275 more state legislative seats, adding up to new majorities in nine chambers across the nation.

OVERALL TREND: And one point that was not highly publicized was the fact that, of those Republicans that won their races, nearly all did so with far smaller margins than in past elections.

Compare these results to what the pundits were saying prior to November 7th (Mega tips to Think Progress)

And note that calling the House for the Democrats was as close to a 'no-brainer' as a brainless pundit could come, so NO CREDIT there. Nada. Nothin'!

First the COWARDS -- These are guys/gals that could have been right but simply lacked the balls to make an unambiguous call. They are a special kind of loser. They're political hedgers -- a spineless lot that balks when required to make a call. (Such cowardice doesn't apply to non-professionals). These guys get paid to make the calls. They didn't. To boot, I dub them as perhaps the biggest losers in the Election 2006 prediction game primarily because they came so close to being stars, but instead felt that NOT taking a position was the best position to take.

Cook Political Report

Going into Election Day, we see a 20-35 seat gain for Democrats in the House, a four to six seat gain for Democrats in the Senate and a six to eight seat gain for Democrats in the governor's races. [11/6/06]

WRONG!! As right as they were in the House and Governorships, they were dead wrong on the Senate! Why? Well, look at their prediction. Essentially, they said the democrats could either TAKE the Senate (6 seat pickup) or NOT TAKE the senate (4 Seat pickup). See where I'm going with this. This is not a correct call because it doesn't take a stand. It leaves the only two possibilities open. That's not a call. That's cowardice.

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Stu Rothenberg, political analyst

Rothenberg Political Report projection: Democratic gain of 30-36 seats.

Rothenberg Political Report projection: Democratic gains of 4-7 seats. [11/6/06]

WRONG!! Sure, he predicted strong pickups, but failed miserably to call who would have the senate majority come November 8th. No guts. No glory.

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Joe Trippi, Democratic Strategist

I think the House is going to be really big -- at the upper end of some of the numbers. It could easily be 35 seats won by the Democrats. The Senate is the one that's tough to predict because it really could go either way. I could see anything from Democrats only gaining four or five seats to gaining eight seats. That's possible, but my guess is that Democrats are going to come up a seat or two short in the Senate. [11/6/06]

WRONG!! Joe came so close, but chose the GOP as leaders of the Senate. That said, at least he took a stand.

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And now the LOSERS -- These are the people that had the courage to take a stand, but failed miserably to consider reality. To me that means they're either blindly partisan, brazenly counter CW, just plain stupid, or some combination thereof. (Note: These are the same people who advised the White House on Iraqi WMD.)

Mark Noonan, Blogs for Bush

I've been talking big about how well we're going to do and my faith, shaken from time to time, never failed. Now it is to be put to the acid test - we shall know within 24 hours of this writing if I've been whistling past the graveyard, or have been realistic in my predictions. I'm standing by my words: the GOP gains seats in both Houses. [11/7/06]

WRONG!! Looks like 'whistling past the graveyard' was the correct choice for you, amigo.

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Karl Rove, White House adviser

I'm looking at all of these [races] and adding them up. I add up to a Republican Senate and Republican House. You may end up with a different math but you are entitled to your math and I'm entitled to the math. [10/24/06]

WRONG!! Math... so fuzzy... can't breathe... yargh!

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Michael Novak, National Review

The Left is going to lose - big... In a democratic election, however, it only takes a small majority to win. And the upcoming election of 2006 is not likely to be all that close. The Democrats piqued too soon. Just watch. [6/15/06]

Yeah! Just watch -- WRONG!!!

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Kathryn Jean Lopez, National Review

I'm putting my money on Republicans miraculously (not totally deservingly, but it's not about deserving it) keeping the House and the Senate, painfully narrowly. [11/7/06]

WRONG!! WRONG!! WRONG!!

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Barron's magazine

Our analysis -- based on a race-by-race examination of campaign-finance data -- suggests that the GOP will hang on to both chambers, at least nominally. We expect the Republican majority in the House to fall by eight seats, to 224 of the chamber's 435. At the very worst, our analysis suggests, the party's loss could be as large as 14 seats, leaving a one-seat majority. [10/23/06]

WRONG!! And Barron's get's a special IDIOCY AWARD for using such a chigger-brained methodology.

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Vice President Dick Cheney

I think we're going to do reasonably well. And I think we'll hold the Senate, and I also think we got a good shot at holding the House. [10/17/06]

WRONG!! But notice the cowardice of hedging his call on the House -- weak.

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JUST PLAIN WRONG -- And then there's the people who were simply wrong -- those who where a general part of banal consensus and refused to go out on a limb in either direction (Yawn.)

Jonah Goldberg, National Review

House: Dems +17 (whatever that math means).

Senate: R 53 - D 47.

Steele wins, Corker wins, Webb-Allen won't be decided until recounts are finished, at which point Allen wins very narrowly. Chafee comes very close. [11/7/06]

WRONG!!

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Robert Novak, columnist

In the final Evans-Novak report about the upcoming election, Democrats will gain 19 House seats, two Senate seats, and almost half a dozen governorships in what is predicted to be the possible end of Republican Congressional control. [11/6/06]

WRONG!!

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Donna Brazile, Democratic Strategist

[Democrats win] 23 seats [in the House]. I haven't gotten to 25 yet. But I predict that Democrats will come close to picking up the Senate at well - 29 gubernatorial seats. Right now a solid five [seats in the Senate]. I'm working on that sixth one. [11/5/06]

WRONG!! "Come close to picking up the Senate" meant she thought the Dems would fail to pick up the Senate.

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Fred Barnes, Weekly Standard

Senate: 51 (R), 49 (D)
House: 210 (R), 225 (D)

Dark Horse: Conrad Burns holds on in Montana. [11/03/06]

WRONG!!

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George Stephanopoulos, ABC News

Democrats pick up 25 seats in the House, fall just shy in the Senate, picking up five. [11/5/06]

WRONG!!

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Then there is the CLOSE BUT NO CIGAR Category -- the people who did take a stand and were just on the ridge of being correct.

George Will, columnist

"I think [Democrats] will get maybe a tie in the Senate [five seats] which means Mr. Cheney will spend a lot of time in the chair breaking ties. And I would expect the Democrats to have a majority of about 10 seats which has been the average majority in the House for the Republicans for the last six elections. [11/5/06]

So close, but WRONG!!

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And then the WINNERS -- these are the people who called it right. They went out on a limb -- in the correct direction and called the Senate for the Democrats. They might not have gotten the exact number of pickups correct, but they got what matters most -- and showed the courage to take an unambiguous position.

Larry J. Sabato, U.Va. Center for Politics

THE HOUSE: +29 Dems = 232D, 203R
THE SENATE: +6 Dems = 51D, 49R [11/6/06]

WINNER!! Wow. This guy is a freakin' stud!! Might pay to give him some extra props in future cycles.

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William Kristol, Weekly Standard

Senate: 48 (R), 52 (D)
House: 192 (R), 243 (D)

Dark Horse: Anti-immigration stance backfires with Republican meltdown in Arizona and Colorado. [11/03/06]

WINNER!! You gotta love it when a wingnut overestimates the outcome AGAINST his own party. I can appreciate his courage, especially since I'm sure he took some flack for it within his ranks. That said, maybe he said this as a win-win hedge for himself. If he was right, then he could always say, "Hey, I told you so. Listen to me next time will ya?" And if he's wrong, he can feel good about the fact that at least the outcome wasn't as bad for the GOP as he thought.

As it turns out, the election outcome was not Dem-positive enough for him to brag too much about his prediction, but far better than any outcome that would have made him feel any comfort. So jokes on him... loser. Ha!

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Markos Got it right!

Kos rocked the bet with predictions of a 24-36 seat gain in the House, a Dem Majority in the Senate with a specific prediction of a 6 seat gain! And he called for an 8 seat pickup in governorships. [11/06/06]

WINNER!! The important thing is that he called the Senate for the Democrats. That seemed to be the 'tough thing' for people and pundits to do this cycle. Kos did it.

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AND NOW, the person who called for a Democratic Senate, a Democratic House, huge gains in the Governorships, and even mentioned the sweeeeeet gain in state legislators and local elections...

The one...

The only...

TOM BALL -- Woo Hoo:) Heh!

Recall my cheerleading back on November 2 -- "No Stinkin' Hedge: Democrats Will Win the U.S. Senate"

Democrats will win the U.S. Senate next Tuesday... right along with everything else!

[...]

"Democrats are going to ANNIHILATE the Republicans -- and not just in the House, and not just in the Governorships. Democrats are going to beat the living Hell out of Republicans at ALL levels of government. That means we have a Democratic majority in the U.S. Senate, numerous state senates, houses, and assemblies, and God knows how many smaller local and committee elections. The day of the Democrat -- and particularly the progressive Democrat and the proudly outspoken Democrat has come."

[...]

DEMOCRATS ARE GOING TO ROCK!!!!!!!!!!

And on November 6th -- "GOP R.I.P 11/07/2006" (Note that a CNN exit poll showed 'Scandals and corruption' were the 'biggest problem for the GOP' this cycle.)

We knew this time would come. And though there will inevitably be those of you who cringe at the thought of a Democrat actually EXPECTING to win an election AND doing it in a BIG way AND being outspoken about it BEFORE the election takes place, I stand my ground.

[...]

You know the only thing that matters now is turnout, and if you think that's going to favor the Republicans, think again.

In a cycle like this, Rove's 72 hour plan  will be a TOTAL WASHOUT..

The fact is that Democrats are FIRED UP!!!

While conservatives are totally demoralized.

Let's take a look...

And that leads directly to the incalculable array of Republican scandals -- so many that they can't even be uttered in a single breath -- bet that the 'scandal fatigue' will shine brightly tomorrow as multiple facets of the GOP base find themselves too fatigued to make it to the polls.

[...]

On November 7th, 2006 the Republican Party will be annihilated by an unambiguous electoral incineration. And from the ashes will rise the true party of America -- one that reflects the values of America's founders, one that respects the Constitution and our nation's other founding documents and principles --  a newly energized party of progressives seeking the ideals of America and of humanity -- peace, prosperity, freedom and justice for all.

Am I tooting my own horn? Sure, but all in good fun and on a topic that I don't think many people will mind if I was right!!

It's time to celebrate!!!!

ROCK!!!!!!!!!!!!!