Political Cortex: Brain Food for the Body Politic

The progressive reform movement that emerged from the candidacies of 2002 gubernatorial candidates Robert Reich and Warren Tolman, and the 2004 presidential campaign of Howard Dean, has gained significant organizational strength and political momentum -- and made the Patrick insurgency possible. Meanwhile, the candidate of the old guard guard sems to be poised to run against the Democratic Party itself in an effort to appeal to "independents" that comprise the majority of the electorate. However, it would, on its face, appear unlikely that very many independent voters will be fooled by a consummate political insider, backed by political insiders.

The party caucuses which elect delegates to the state convention are the first test of strength of the candidates for governor. This year Attorney General Tom Reilly and Deval Patrick a civil rights lawyer and corporate executive competed for delegates. Candidates need to win at least 15% on the first ballot at the state convention to make it to the Democratic primary. When Patrick, a political unknown launched his campaign last spring, many wondered if he could make it. This weekend's caucuses not only got him his 15%, but he may be within striking distance of winning a majority at the convention in June.

A series of serious political fumbles by Reilly has dominated news coverage this week to the point where some question the viability of his campaign, and this may contribute to the outcome at the convention.  

But to me, the deeper story is that Reilly seems to believe that the best approach to politics is to discourage citizen participation and take for granted -- or perhaps even to to write-off -- the base of the Democratic Party.

This difference was evident at the caucuses. The Patrick campaign and allied organizations mobilized thousands of activists and reportedly won as much as 2/3 at -- least a majority according to delegate counters -- of the elected convention delegates on Saturday. Reilly's people claimed that not bothering to show up was part of his "strategy."  

Most of the delegates Reily collected were thanks to the machines of some prominent pols in the cities of Boston, Springfield and Lowell.

The Boston Globe reported:

In his first test as a candidate for governor, political newcomer Deval Patrick scored a sweeping victory at Democratic caucuses yesterday, trouncing Attorney General Thomas F. Reilly, a two-term statewide office holder.

Delegate slates pledged to Patrick, the former top federal civil rights prosecutor and business executive, rolled up margins at local party meetings that will give him close to a 2-to-1 advantage over Reilly in the count of committed delegates, according to several Democratic Party strategists around the state.

With about 35,000 Democrats participating in local meetings around the state, Patrick was able to win easily in liberal strongholds such as Arlington, Newton, and Somerville and ran strong in several urban areas. Reilly even lost his home base Watertown, where his daughter lost a bid to become a delegate.

The Reilly "strategy," seems largely borrowed from the GOP playbook: attack the Democratic Party as dominated by "liberal activists" and "special interests."  

More from the Globe:

''I've been independent minded, and the party establishment has problems with that," Reilly said in an interview after the caucus results were in, citing his position in favor of a tax rollback, charter schools, and MCAS testing. ''I did well considering that I stand up to the party on certain things."

According to his strategists, Reilly, who holds a strong lead over Patrick in the early polls of Democratic primary voters, is striving to avoid catering to the liberal bloc of the state party and to special-interest groups, which dominate the convention. Instead, he wants to strike a more moderate image that will play well in the general election in November, particularly to unaligned voters.

The story of the caucuses is that while the Patrick campaign organized well and earned its delegates, and did well even in Reilly strongholds -- in many places the Reilly campaign did not bother to show up.  

Patrick town coordinators across the state report strong showings even in Reilly strongholds such as Springfield, where Reilly grew up. Patrick delegates also dominated the caucuses in old industrial cities of New Bedford, Woburn and Pittsfield; while sweeping caucuses in Plymouth, Falmouth, Brookline, Cambridge, Lexington, Northampton, Amherst, Belchertown, Rockport, Wellesley, Wellfleet, and many, many more. In state senate district 1, comprising the westernmost part of the state, the Patrick district coordinator Michael Wilcox reported after having collected 70% of the results,

59 (80%) are declared for Patrick,
13 (17%) are undecided, undeclared, or unknown to me,
2 (2%) are declared for Reilly.

He expects that the balance will be similarly proportioned.

In the suburban city of Framingham, the trend continued on Sunday when Dems in that city held their caucus. MetroWest Daily News, reports:

"It was 26 for (Deval) Patrick and eight supporting (Thomas) Reilly," Norma Shulman, Democratic Town Committee chairwoman, said of the delegates' support for the two candidates.

    Wearing stickers and carrying signs, 123 registered voters elected 17 men and 17 women, and three alternates, to represent them at the Democratic State Convention in Worcester in June. The 35th delegate's spot is left for whomever the chairman of the Framingham Democratic Town Committee will be in June, according to Shulman.

Meanwhile, Massachusetts political bloggers who attended the caucuses are weighing in with their reports from the caucuses on Saturday. Sco at .08 Acres and a Donkey was elected as a delegate in Watertown.

I was pleased and stunned about what happened at our caucus. I was one of the people organizing the slate of delegates for Patrick, so I knew exactly how hard we worked to get people to the caucus. Personally, I printed out letters until two in the morning the day the date of the caucus was (finally) announced so they'd be in the mail the next day. We called and mailed everyone we could think of who might be sympathetic to Deval Patrick's candidacy or even to members of our slate. We did not go out of our way to alert people we knew were Reilly supporters to what we were doing, but neither did we keep this a secret. We assumed that Tom Reilly was doing the same.

But come caucus time, it became apparent that he wasn't...

I will say, though, that I think what happened in Watertown really puts the lie to what Tom Reilly said about how only liberals go to caucuses, so of course he lost. The people who went to the caucus were the people we asked to go. They did not just wander in. The Reilly campaign could have and should have done the same if they wanted to avoid the "lost his own hometown" storyline in today's papers. Don't get me wrong, I have a lot of respect for Tom Reilly, but he showed yesterday that he cared more about what was going on in Lowell and Boston than he did about what was happening just down the road from him.

Lynne at Left in Lowell, has two detailed pieces offering grassroots blogs-eye-views of the caucuses:  First quoting fellow bloggers, she writes:

This expresses exactly my sentiment:

BlueWatertown:
The simple fact of the matter is that Deval Patrick's campaign is building the kind of grass roots support that we need to elect a Democrat to office in November. That's what you saw at the caucuses yesterday. As a Democrat, I truly wish that Reilly's campaign were doing the same, because we'll need everyone working together to beat the Republicans.

EdinArlington:
Listening to the media you would think that the biggest mistake Reilly made last week was blundering in his choice of running mates, but does anyone really think that made any real difference yesterday? Reilly's big mistake last week was waking up and realizing that he had no real field organization and that he was going to get his head handed to him in the caucuses. Come on, since when does the front runner start saying "all I want to do is get my 15%" It's when he knows he is going to loose.

Lynne concludes:  

...frankly, I don't see how getting the politicos (Meehan, Pangie, Murphy, Golden, Nangle) and their supporters out to get Reilly some Lowell delegates is being a good barometer for the voters in September and November...people are tired of the same ol' same ol'. I can't say that Reilly so far has left the taste of something new and exciting and full of independent thought in voters' mouths - more like business as usual. I'm sure he's a great guy and a terrific prosecutor - but as candidate, I want to pick a horse that can win. Establishment candidates with no ground game but the waning power of the Massachusetts Democratic party - which needs a shot in the arm - have lost how many gubernatorial elections? In the general, someone who stands for something solid will win the independent voter back to the Democratic ticket. Just wait and see when Deval Patrick wins the nomination.

There will be many lessons for Democrats to learn from the stark differences between the campaigns of Deval Patrick and Tom Reilly. Some of them are already clear.