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Effective jobloss under the Bush Economy: Unemployment rose from 4% (2000) to 5.1% (2005) Email Print

Raybin's FPed MLW post says: In a nutshell, the Bush economy has created 4.5 million jobs.

What that figure it doesn't take into account is the increase in the population and hence the increase in employment-ready population. When we do that, there was an effective job loss during the 5+ years under the current administration.

The key is to look at the rates of unenmployment. Here is the data for the 1992-2005 period:



Average annual unemployment rates for 1992-2005

1992    7.5% (9.6 million)

1993    6.9

1994    6.1

1995    5.6

1996    5.4

1997    4.9

1998    4.5

1999    4.2

2000    4.0% (5.7 million)

2001    4.7

2002    5.8

2003    6.0

2004    5.5

2005  5.1% (7.6 million)

Links: one, two, three.

From these, we can see that while the employment picture is getting better after bottoming out in 2003, it is still far from from what it was in 2000. The two key figures are:

  • 33% increase in unemployment rolls: 7.6 million people were umemployed in 2005, while only 5.7 were jobless in 2000. A net effective job loss of 1.9 million.

  • 25% increase in umemployment rate: unemployment rate was 5.1% in 2005 compared to 4% in 2000.

ps: the first link says that unemployment rate was 4.7% last month, but that could be a seasonal or incidental blip. Quarterly figures will need to be seen.

In summary, the economy left a greater number and share of people unemployed.

Next installment: The myth of Bush tax cuts.


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In addition to population growth, the Labor Force Participation Rate, (or the % of the pop actively seeking work) has also declined worsening the overall jobs picture.

I've done a series of diaries on dKos and Eurotrib looking at employment as a % of the population aged 16-65 (links below).  Using Jan 2001 as the labor force participation benchmark and population growth, as of December 2005, Bushco is 4.1 Million jobs short of the level we were at in Jan 2001.

Links:
Vol. 1 - Overall Employment
Vol. 2 - Employment by Age
Vol. 3 - Employment by Industry
Vol. 4 - Wages by Industry

Another Unemployement Statistic to look at is the U6 Rate.  This theoretically takes into account potential workers who have become discouraged and have not "actively sought" employment in the previous 4 weeks, are "marginally attached", and are "working part-time for economic reasons".  

The rate is substantially worse than the "Official" unemployment rate.

by btower on 02/15/2006 09:27:56 AM EST

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