Political Cortex: Brain Food for the Body Politic

This will wipe the smile off your face:  Member countries represent 1/4 of the world's population. Two of the countries are nuclear powers. One is a major oil producer.  Think they don't have clout?  Here is a story from last November that didn't get much play:

Uzbekistan Ends U.S. Use of Airbase Aiding Afghanistan Mission

You probably don't know much about Uzbekistan.  Don't be surprised. It is a small impoverished country.  If it was a state, West Virginia would be giving it assistance.

Here's a couple of simple questions: You really believe the Bush administration chose to put "human rights" as a higher priority than a forward base in Central Asia as a launch pad for counterterrorism operations? You really believe OJ Simpson will ever identify his wife's killer?

Now ask yourself -- when was the last time some pissant little country forced the US to close down one of its bases?  When was the last time any country forced the US to get out? That reminds me -- Which came first, Napoleon's defeat in Haiti or Waterloo?

Obviously Uzbekistan has something West Virginia doesn't.  It belongs to SCO.  Belonging to SCO allows them to align themselves with Russia AND China.  But wait.... there's more:  Iran, India, Pakistan and Mongolia are all petitioning for membership in the SCO.  When that happens, member countries will have 1/2 the world's population, include 4 nuclear powers, and 2 major oil producers.

Right now SCO is primarily dedicated to making sure that all these countries can settle regional issues without a shooting war in Central Asia (where they all share borders).  But that will quickly change with the addition of India, Iran, Pakistan and Mongolia.  When that happens, SCO countries will cover a landmass from Europe to Central and South Asia to Asia.  From the Baltic and Black Seas to the Pacific. From the Arctic to the Indian Ocean.  Look at the map and you will realize the only country missing from that grand coalition is Afghanistan.

Of course, SCO represents much more than a formidable military alliance.  It is most importantly an economic alliance.  Here's a measure of how strong it has become:  Russia is going to build an oil pipeline to the Pacific, to supply Japan.

The Asahi Shimbun put this in a broader context:

Considering Japan's strategy for East Asian countries, Russia is an indispensable player. It has the most important supply capacity of energy, and security in this part of the world cannot be talked about without mentioning Moscow. The same is true of economics.

Given the increasing demand for energy in China, it would not be in Japan's interest to compete against China for access to Russian resources. Unless Japan and China cooperate so that they can both benefit, Russia will take advantage of the Japan-China rivalry.

This sort of economic coexistence obviously has appeal to regional players.  Both Pakistan and India are clamoring to join SCO.  We are talking about countries that have actually been fighting each other for quite awhile.  Heck, even India and China had a shooting war not too long ago.  That's the primary reason India cares about Kashmir. They don't want a hoard of Chinese pouring over those mountains again. The pending admission of Pakistan and India to an alliance dominated by China demonstrates how the Bush Doctrine has helped drive countries that are normally at each other's throats into each other's arms.

SCO was formed in the 90s but really didn't amount to much for a long time.  Since 2002 things have changed dramatically. China and Russia in particular recognized the looming threat of the Bush Doctrine in the hands of an administration that was happy to reneg on international treaty obligations.  The invasion of Iraq sealed the deal.  Iran, the first Islamic nation to endorse our invasion of Afghanistan, woke up and found American boots in all the countries surrounding its borders.  Since then there have been major joint military exercises between SCO members.  Recently Russia and India are planning a joint exercise.  The Foreign Minister of Russia even notes it is conceivable that Russia, India and China might hold joint exercises in the future.

By now it should be obvious that power bloc would have significant geographic, military, economic, and natural resource clout.   That's one reason why the overwhelming assessment by Asian officials, diplomats and analysts is that the U.S. military simply cannot defeat China.  

The rise of SCO will scuttle American aspirations for a Pax Americana and mark the end of American hegemony. amazing thing is this whole reversal of fortune happened on Bush's watch.  Unfortunately, this could have been avoided if Republicans served their country before serving their party.  The The decline of American influence is not being acknowledged in the US... no surprise.  Consider the President's recent itineraries based on what you know now and you will notice something interesting.  He has recently been to Mongolia (first time for any president), and India (first time for him),  Pakistan (first time for him).  Hell of a coincidence for a guy who doesn't travel much. The only SCO observer nation missing from that list is Iran.

While this administration has yet to publicly acknowledge its declining influence at home, it is being reported outside the US.  Here's one sample from an Indian paper. It's an op-ed  piece called "Erosion of empire"

The observation is pretty stark:

Until this year, the Bush administration barely addressed regional economic issues at APEC. It preferred to use the meetings to promote a post-9/11 security agenda of anti-terrorism. US trade policy has focused more on reaching free trade agreements with a few selected `friends' in that war, such as Singapore and Australia.

Meanwhile a Chinese-sponsored move to hold an East Asian summit offers the most visible expression of a trend of declining American influence in Asia. That meeting will take place in Malaysia in mid-December. The gathering groups the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations, Japan, China, South Korea, India, Australia and New Zealand. Pointedly not invited is the United States.

This meeting is an outgrowth of the ASEAN Plus Three process -- an annual dialogue of ASEAN with China, South Korea and Japan that began in December 1997 in the midst of the Asian financial crisis. The APT has grown into an elaborate mechanism for cooperation in a range of areas from finance and agriculture to information technology.

This reflects an underlying economic reality, the growth of regional and bilateral trade agreements and the rapid rise of intra-Asian trade.

Speaking of economic coexistence, let's not forget the relations between Iran and Russia when it comes to nuclear power, or Iran and China when it comes to oil. Or India and Russia when it comes to oil.

This brings us back to Murtha's comment and the associated  meltdown scenario:  

1)Iran joins SCO and gains both Russian and Chinese support, thereby preventing a direct US attack.

2)Russia and Iran decide to denominate their oil in Euros.

3)Venezuela, already having pulled all of its reserves out of US banks would likely join them.

4)China dumps US currency in favor of Euros.  Japan would likely follow.  

5)The US dollar could drop 30% or more while the costs for oil would jump by as much as 20%.

All that damage... and not a single shot fired.

When history is written, Bush will be compared to Nero -- unfavorably -- and those who blindly supported him will not be able to say "we didn't know" because the record is clear they were warned repeatedly and chose to ignore it.

"There's some background noise here, a lot of chatter, a lot of speculation and opining."
- President Bush, Oct. 20, 2005