Political Cortex: Brain Food for the Body Politic

It's not hard to see the placement of the UAE relative to Iran.  It's also well known that the UAE is the site of US military bases in the Persian Gulf.  The US has large bases at Al Dhafra, where the US launches spy planes and refueling missions.  Even more important is the base at Fujairah.  

The Fujairah to Jebel Ali land link is the Navy's logistics pipeline to the Gulf should the Strait of Hormuz be closed.

All this is obvious from looking at a map.  What's just as obvious?  According to my source, fast-tracking the ports deal is a classic case of quid-pro-quo.

While the Iraqi attempt to stop the flow of oil through the straits during the US invasion was more than a little ludicrous (they had men in rubber dingies tossing mines out behind them), the Iranians have much more advanced weaponry.  And they have a lot of it.

Should the Iranians be convinced that a US invasion is imminent, they could threaten to shut down shipping through the straits, cutting off the flow of oil.  They could also use missile sites on their side of the Gulf to hit US bases that are in easy range of their high-speed missiles.

Not only is the UAE friendly to the administration, they also have a reason to be willing to let us go at the Iranians.  There are a series of islands scattered across the entrance of the gulf that are claimed by the UAE, but occupied by Iran.  The ports deal is the appetizer.  Abu Musa and Tumb al Kubra are the main course.

By giving this deal to Dubai, the US cements its friendship with the UAE and secures bases that can be used not only to launch attacks on Iran, but to help keep the Strait open.  Sure, the US has bases elsewhere in the Middle East (including our "temporary" bases in Iraq), but there's a worry that should the US proceed without UN authority, other governments might not be friendly to letting US planes fly sorties into Iran from runways in their country.  The UAE is seen as the most likely to support the US in actions against Iraq.  That, combined with it's strategic position means that Bush will do nothing to upset Dubai, so that he's assured of support for military options against Iran.

Dubai in turn gets the ports now, the islands later.  Bush uses the UAE as a launching pad for attacks on Iran.

And that is why George Bush will not go down on this deal without pulling out every trick available.

Heck, maybe he'll just break the law, give the ports to Dubai, then get Olympia Snowe to say it's all right after the fact.  That plan seems to be working on other subjects.