Political Cortex: Brain Food for the Body Politic

Refusing to tromp out on that precarious limb, I'll guess that Pat's trying to position himself as the 'next coming' -- a peerless prophet for the 21st century.

So simple. Taking advantage of the hopes and dreams of the gullible, Pat lies his face off, shamelessly claiming to receive the direct word of the Lord and divine insight into the upcoming hurricane season -- one apparently filled with Katrina-like biblical fury.

In fact images of Katrina devastation still fester in the minds of his listeners. And Pat is quick to take advantage.

"Surely the moral will not allow our disaster recovery defenses to lie helplessly in the hands of this incompetent administration," Robertson might say, "Now is the time to donate heavily to my fund. Please help yourself to the Kool-Aid on the way out."

Fact of the matter: Patty's been reading the papers and he's decided to jump on the media bandwagon o' science.

Accuweather.com

"The Northeast is staring down the barrel of a gun," said Joe Bastardi, Chief Forecaster of the AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center. "The Northeast coast is long overdue for a powerful hurricane, and with the weather patterns and hydrology we're seeing in the oceans, the likelihood of a major hurricane making landfall in the Northeast is not a question of if but when."

And then there's this -- Caribbean: Forecasters Predict Severe Hurricane Season

Following 2005's record-breaking number of hurricanes, the Caribbean is set for another above-average hurricane season, according to weather forecasters. Water temperatures in the Atlantic-Caribbean are warm and the Pacific is seeing no El Niño pattern to offset them. The U.S. National Weather Service reported that the 2006 season will be as active as 2005, when 27 named storms and 15 hurricanes caused widespread damage.

And let's not pass up the Atlantic Hurricane Outlook & Seasonal Climate Summary Archive

SUMMARY

NOAA's 2006 Atlantic hurricane season outlook indicates an 80% chance of an above-normal hurricane season, a 15% chance of a near-normal season, and only a 5% chance of a below-normal season. This outlook is produced by scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center (CPC), National Hurricane Center (NHC), and Hurricane Research Division (HRD). See NOAA's definitions of above-, near-, and below-normal seasons.

The outlook calls for a very active 2006 season, with 13-16 named storms, 8-10 hurricanes, and 4-6 major hurricanes. The likely range of the ACE index is 135%-205% of the median. This prediction indicates a continuation of above-normal activity that began in 1995. However, we do not currently expect a repeat of last year's record season.

The predicted 2006 activity strongly reflects an expected continuation of conditions associated with the multi-decadal signal, which has favored above-normal Atlantic hurricane seasons since 1995. These conditions include considerably warmer than normal sea surface temperatures (SSTs), lower wind shear, reduced sea level pressure, and a more conducive structure of the African easterly jet. An updated Atlantic hurricane outlook will be issued in early August, which begins the peak months (August-October) of the hurricane season.

Clearly Pat is trying to place his bets -- a common trick amongst mainstream hucksters -- financial analysts and professional weather forecasters.

First, you lay out your predictions (guesses) here and there. The more the better. The more ridiculous, the better any chance 'hit' will appear down the road.

As time waggles on, the guesses either come to fruition or they don't.

• If they don't, who cares! Nobody says a thing and nobody really knows the difference.

• If they do, however, then watch out. It's time for the media 'I told you so' hard-ball assault -- highly visible and designed to make you look like a prophetic phenom.

For Pat's purposes (as well as for financial analysts or other forecasters) there's much money to be made if, by chance, he turns out to be correct.

And Pat has an additional advantage over more structured professional guessers. His past guesses won't be scrutinized by his followers (or would-be followers) for accuracy. All they know is that he was 'right' and that's all that matters. So what if his 'hit rate' was inferior to that of a flipped coin. After all, he knew it because the 'Lord told him so'.

Even better for Pat is that he was able to rehash a consensus scientific position on the 2006 Hurricane season and cast it as his 'message from God'. Now that's talent!

So where's the scam part? Well, that comes at only $20 per month:

"we're positioning supplies in California. We've got supplies positioned in Florida. We'll have others, and, of course, we have a major presence in the Gulf right now." He added, "[W]hen you contribute $20 a month to The 700 Club, you are saying, 'I care about people. I care about my neighbors, I care about my friends, I care about those who are suffering.'"

See! Only 20$ per month!!

Come on people! Give him a break. Two Bentleys simply aren't enough.