Dick Morris: Tennessee Senate Race Could Tip Majority to Democrats in '06

Top Democratic targets: (According to the latest Rasmussen polls)
Senator Rick Santorum (R-Pa.) trails Democrat Bob Casey Jr. 56-33
Senator Mike DeWine (R-Ohio) trails Rep. Sherrod Brown 44-41
Senator Conrad Burns (R-Mont.) trails Jon Tester by 48-44
Ahead of their Democratic challengers but well below 50 percent are:
Senator Jim Talent (R-Mo.) over Democrat Claire McCaskill 43-40
Senator Lincoln Chafee (R-R.I.) over Democrat Sheldon Whitehouse 44-42
Both of these would likely fall to the Democrats in the event of a broad trend towards Democrats.
Answer: Rep. Harold Ford (D-TN)
According to a recent Zogby poll:
Ford ties former Republican Rep. Ed Bryant 42-42
Ford trails Chattanooga Mayor Bob Corker 46-42
Subjectively, Morris continues...
Ford, one of a new generation of African-American politicians with considerable appeal across party lines, has two defects as he runs for the open seat: He is black in a state with the lowest African-American population in the old Confederacy, and his uncle is facing serious corruption charges. But both of these drawbacks are quite obvious to the voters of Tennessee. If they are insufficient to doom his candidacy, this man may be a winner.Ford himself is a Southern version of Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.), a moderate who has the capacity to attract independent votes. Ford rejects the extreme liberal ideology of many other black Democratic congressmen. He has also, one hopes, absorbed the lessons his ethically challenged family has to teach him about keeping his nose clean. Harold Ford is exactly the kind of black Democrat whom moderates would love to love.
Carefully noted too was the fact that weak candidates are not a one-party affair. According to Rasmussen:
Bob Menendez (D-NJ) trails challenger Tom Kean Jr. 40-37
Maria Cantwell (D-Wash) though maintaining her lead, is losing ground.
One thing in these Democrats' favor is that neither New Jersey nor Washington state are particularly favorable to Republicans. In addition, New Jersey's significant Latin-American vote should 'turn out in droves' for Menendez.
KEYWORDS: Harold Ford, 2006 Elections, Senate, Tennessee, Democrats
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