SHOCK!! Oil and Gas Prices Mysteriously Drop in Lead Up to Elections Email Print

Photobucket - Video and Image HostingOnly 54 days till the midterm elections and the Republicans are in deep doo-doo! What could possibly give them a lift? Seems the tired meme that they're somehow 'stronger in the war on terror' is wearing thin on a growingly skeptical populace. Iraq is an ongoing catastrophe. And Republicans across the nation are strapped with scandal.

With all this, we would like to believe that the sorrowful and clearly unnecessary loss of life in Iraq serves as the leading causal factor to the Bush Co. downfall. But we're probably wrong.

Find out why... take the jump!

More likely, the broad loss of approval suffered by Bush and the Republicans has resulted from the sharp rise in fuel costs -- a back-breaking element to the average voters' mundane lives. Though most wouldn't admit it or perhaps even consciously believe it, gas prices trump lives lost when it comes to the perception of Der Ledur. This is supported by available data.

Following that, a drop in fuel prices should lead to a rally in Bush's approval ratings -- it does. Seems those in charge are held accountable for adverse changes in energy prices, but not for treason, corruption, lying, cowardice, or election theft.

Visually, the correlation between gasoline prices and Bush's approval ratings -- which filter down to the entire Republican party -- is clear and meaningful.

Correlation of Bush Approval and Gasoline Prices 2006 -- Tips to Professor Pollkatz!. Photobucket - Video and Image Hosting
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The correlation is clear. And fortunately for Bush many don't realize that the current price of gasoline in real terms (i.e. taking inflation into account) is nearly as disastrous as it was during the 1979-80 gas crunch. Strangely, Bush has not been held accountable like the Carter administration was then. That's likely due to the GOP windbags' propensity to overlook Dubya's mind-bending failures regardless of how they mirror those that they've clung to with outrage in the past. And though that explains the Republican's silence, where the Hell are the Democrats on this?

Real Gasoline Prices 1950 - 2006 -- Tips to Oregon State University!
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Photobucket - Video and Image Hosting Nevertheless, The Bush administration, having been established by oil executives (Cheney: Halliburton, Rice: Chevron, Bush: Harkin, Don Evans: Tom Brown and Paul O'Neill: Alcoa) is 'one' with the oil industry, and has thus earned the whoring rights to Saudi Royalty. That gives them a lever to help mitigate the disastrous rise in fuel prices exacerbated by the Administration's illegal invasion into Iraq.

A little hand from the Saudis on oil, a subsequent causal drop in Gas prices, and voila, higher approval ratings for Bush and his lowly minions come November.

Correlation of Oil and Gasoline Prices
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I guess the Administration can suppress more than just the vote.

Just joking... only a crackpot conspiracy theorist could possibly believe that the Bush Administration is once again pounding down the price of Gasoline in the run-up to the November elections.

Only a kook would note:

"The connection between gas prices and presidential approval is not (simply) that Bush is connected to Big Oil.  It's that the price of gasoline is just about the only Federal policy result non-wonks see and can relate to on a day-to-day basis.  ...[G]asoline price displays, changing daily, hit people directly where they live.

And only a left wing ding-a-ling would cite the nutty professor, Paul Krugman who said that the "stunningly close relationship between short-term movements in Bush's approval rating and changes in the price of gasoline" were in any way related to the predictable decline in Gas prices in the lead up to the elections.

In his book, Armed Madhouse, Investigative God, Greg Palast observed [paraphrased], "Not since the 2004 Elections have the Saudi's pumped oil 'flat-out' to bring down the price of oil" and thus the price of gasoline.

Looking back into the run-up to the 2004 Election, we saw gasoline prices coming off -- actually diverging from the then-still-rising oil prices.

Gasoline Prices Begin Early Decline Going Into the 2004 Election
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I understand that this runs counter to Palast's assertion at first blush, but rest assured that the background machinery was working to bring about the desired result. As you can see from the Chart below (Oil Prices 2004-2006), the price of oil plummeted from October 2004, through the election and into late December 2004.

Oil and Gasoline Prices Leading into the 2004 Election
Oil and Gasoline Prices Leading into the 2004 Election
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And check this out, it seems that Bush's approval ratings seemed to move up and down right along with the price of gas back in 2004 as well. What a Coinkidink!

Correlation of Bush Approval and Gasoline Prices 2004 -- Tips to Professor Pollkatz!
Bush - Gas Correlation: 2004 Election
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True, correlation alone does not mean causation -- but correlation coupled with good ol' common sense certainly does.

Bottom Line: The price of gas serves as a constant reminder of Bush's failures in both foreign and domestic policy. Common wisdom says that people vote their pocket. Indeed, nobody cares what the price is for a barrel of oil ...unless it filters into higher gas and energy prices. Only then does it have a personalized, material impact on the pockets of average Americans. And even if some won't admit it, they blame the problem, fairly or unfairly, on the government.

People also understand that the invasion of Iraq has 'something' to do with these prices. And if prices remain high, it might subconsciously give reason for some Bush supporters to find themselves just a touch too busy to make it to the polls on election day. (Maybe they can't afford to fill up the car to drive to the polls.)

On the other hand, if gas prices continue to come off, Bush's approval (and to a lesser degree the Republican Party's approval) might experience a 'miraculous' rebound.

Rest assured, they will be working that machine, doing everything in their power to (at least temporarily) slap down prices at the pump.

And you can take that to the tank. (sorry)

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A coincidence, or an evidence supported manipulation?

I'd be happy to hear the counterargument if anyone has one.

Political Cortex -- Brain Food for the Body Politic

by Tom Ball on 09/14/2006 02:04:40 PM EST

And you can certainly bet on that post-election price rebound -- just in time for the coldest time of year.

Political Cortex -- Brain Food for the Body Politic

by Tom Ball on 09/14/2006 04:12:55 PM EST