Political Cortex: Brain Food for the Body Politic

While Reilly continued to raise massive amounts of money, Patrick patiently played his own game; defied the odds and the tsk tsking of The Conventional Wisdom.  He inspired people to get serious about electing someone different --someone who could and would make a difference.  He was and is a candidate who actually talks with you when you meet him; not just serving up premasticated soundbites. Out of the initial enthusiasm, he forged an effective grassroots organization that won more than enough delegates to be the official nominee of the Democratic state convention. He gave an oration at the convention that brought people to their feet, cheering. Meanwhile, after Reilly snubbed Chris Gabrieli, (a wealthy businessman who was the Dem nominee for Lt. Governor last time) as his running mate, Gabrieli decided to get into the race himself. A lot of the party establishment, disillusioned with the ineptitude of Reilly's campaign are quietly backing Gabrieli, although Reilly and Patrick had most of the endorsements that matter long before Gabrielli got in the race, just before the state convention in June.

With just over two weeks to go until the  party primary, polls and popular perceptions show Reilly behind and Gabrieli and Patrick contending for first place. According to the Springfield Republican, Gabrieli has spent $6.3 million; most of it his own money; and most of it on advertising.  But by standard measures of the Conventional Wisdom, things are unclear. The Congressional Quarterly reported:

Neither veteran political observers nor pollsters can agree how this race will shake out. A survey conducted Aug. 22 by the Suffolk University Political Research Center for Boston television station WHDH showed Gabrielli ahead of the pack with support of 32 percent of the respondents to 24 percent for Patrick and 20 percent for Reilly. But a Boston Globe poll released on Aug. 27 placed Patrick at 31 percent, Gabrielli at 30 percent, and Reilly at 27 percent - a virtual tie.

On the other hand, Pollster.com considers Patrick the "likely" Democratic nominee, and is only posting polls matching up Patrick vs. the GOP candidate, Lt. Governor Kerry Healy.  

However one interprets the polls, I believe Patrick's significant, well-organized and enthusiastic field organization -- and effective use of the internet -- will be the deciding factors on September 19th. I was part of it early on, and although I have not been able to be active recently, I have had a unique window on its development and operation.  Patrick has over 7,000 volunteers and a quarter of the $4 million raised so far has been raised via the campaign's website.

In addition to broad popular support, Patrick also has some heavy hitters in his camp. He has been endorsed by  U.S.Representatives, Jim McGovern, Mike Capuano, Barney Frank, John Olver and John Tierney, as well as the Massachusetts chapter of the American Federation of Teachers, Democracy for America, Progressive Democrats of Massachusetts, former U.S. Secretary of Labor Robert Reich, several dozen state legislators, and many more.  

I could go on. But let me wrap this up by quoting from the endorsement statement of Massachusetts leading group political blog, Blue Mass Group:

The insiders and the consultant class were baffled ...  Baffled, because they didn't get it. Patrick wasn't out on some Romneyesque search for the positions that will win him the most votes. He was out to see whether the message he already knew he wanted to deliver was one that would resonate with actual voters. As he told the Phoenix  in early 2005, "what I'm trying to find is whether what I offer is what people need." After spending a lot of time talking and -- more importantly -- listening to people around the state, he concluded that his message would indeed resonate. Turns out he was right. People 1, Consultants and Insiders 0.

Once up and running, the Patrick campaign stuck with that people-based approach, adopting a strategy that relies heavily on word-of-mouth, one-to-one contact, and personal persuasion. The approach has worked, as seen in Patrick's performance at the 2005 Lowell convention, the caucus victories in February, and his endorsement at the state Democratic Convention in Worcester a couple of months ago. No other Massachusetts gubernatorial candidate has pursued this strategy with the commitment and skill of the Patrick team.

This emphasis on ordinary people -- as opposed to an almost exclusive reliance on consultant-commissioned multi-million dollar electronic air barrages -- is a gamble, but it is intriguing and exciting to see a campaign that actually seems to believe in it wholeheartedly, to the point of deferring major Big Media investments until the end of the voting cycle. The savvy folks who run Patrick's campaign believe in the persuasive power of their volunteers and supporters, as well as their candidate. They believe that the same community-based, one-on-one approach that wins city council races can win the Governor's office.

The campaign is not romantic or delusional; they are carrying out this strategy in a crisp, professional manner and getting results. Patrick has led in several recent polls, despite significant media buys by his opponents. And the strategy is more than just an effective tool for a campaign: it's profoundly reinvigorating to the political culture as a whole.[emphasis in the original]

Not sure you want to help?  Check out this preview of Patrick's third TV ad, which premiers on broadcast and cable outlets this Sunday, September 3.

The ad features Patrick speaking to 3,000 supporters. He says:

If you want Massachusetts to get up off its knees and show global leadership economically and in education and in healthcare and in basic decency around community. If that is what you want, if that is what you hope for, if that is what you're willing to work for, I look forward to being your governor.