Political Cortex: Brain Food for the Body Politic

In their own words,

The Citizenrē Corporation is a pure-play renewable energy provider. We are positioned to deliver renewable energy to the marketplace on a cost competitive basis. This makes us highly unique amidst the RE landscape; it places us perfectly - to truly minimize our dependence upon foreign and fossil fuels, to install more environmentally friendly electricity generating assets, to deliver a higher degree of energy surety, and to realize a 21st century quality of life.

As of when I checked the page for the citizenrē REnU the evening of 21 February, "7,727 already have ... Join[ed] the Solution".  7727 (150 in the Commonwealth) people have signed their contracts. If you live in a state with net metering, you can put solar electric on your roof, eliminating your concerns about how your big-screen TV is polluting the earth and protecting yourself for decades to come against the potential for increased utility costs.  All of this with:

* No system purchase

• No installation cost
  
• No maintenance fees
  
• No permit hassles
  
• No performance worries
  
• No rate increases

I don't know about you, but this sounds pretty damn good to me.  

For context, consider the following:

• When I costed out installing solar PV in Northern Virginia, on a "DIY" basis (which probably is not what most of us / US would want to do), the $20,000 investment (excluding that free labor) would have generated about $27 per month in electricity (at current prices).
  
• The $20k would have be worth about $320 per year or a 1.6% return on investment.
  
• In other words, assuming zero discount on future dollars (perhaps due to rising utility costs), it would take over 60 years to get my money back. And, the system was warranted for 25 years.

Taking away all the hassles of permitting, labor, and service through life-cycle, and putting it on my rooftop for free, Citizenrē is offering me a path toward a carbon-free home at steadily declining prices (since the price is fixed and, well, inflation happens, you know) for decades to come. Sort of like the HGTV show, I WANT THAT!!!!

And, back in December, I contacted them, almost breathless in anticipation.

I got the materials.

I was excited.  

I told some people about this wonderful new product and that

I would have solar pv on my roof come September with no money down.

And, I was just about to sign the contract.

And, that voice on the shoulder whispered, "Don't you remember Mom saying, "If it sounds too good to be true ..." "  

I paused and didn't sign the contract, as much as I wanted to ... I want to believe.  I really do.

I want to believe that there is a now path toward putting solar electricity on 100% of American homes in a truly financially beneficial manner, without any government support, even without a carbon tax helping to show the true costs of energy choices, and all of it with "NO MONEY DOWN".  

But, the whipering voice questioned again, "Too good to be true?"

Well, the controversy is stirring up and my general discomfort is getting reflected in heated discussion and debate on the web.  Wired News just published the story Selling Homeowners a Solar Dream:

Arguments between naysayers, independent sales agents and company officials have been burning up alternative energy sites. Much of the criticism comes from the traditional sell-and-install solar photovoltaic community. Some traditional installers, like groSolar CEO Jeffrey Wolfe, dismiss Citizenrē as a pipe dream bordering on a scam.

Reflecting that, here are some of the serious critiques of CitizenRE that I've seen:

* Jeffery Wolfe, CEO, groSolar, with CitizenRE:  A House of Cards?

In its current incarnation, it is my opinion that Citizenre represents a significant threat to the solar industry. Exaggerated claims, inability to deliver product, sales to areas where they do not intend to install soon. These issues can taint the entire solar industry. Worse, misled customers will delay or not buy products from reputable dealers, putting these sound businesses at risk.

• Carl Lenox, over at GreenVolts, has done an excellent job analyzing technical barriers to CitizenRE achieving its claimed cost breakthroughs -- both in technical terms (will their material perform) and business terms (is the solar industry as fat as CitizenRe claims (or, at least, implies)).

• Niels Wolter at Renewable Energy Now laid out his calculations as to why he could not see how CitizenRE could make a profit (succeed as a business) within its promises.

In addition, Stephen Lacey at Renewable Energy Access has written The Heated Debate Over Citizenre. In addition, there is a podcast by Stephen Lacey. These raise some serious questions about CitizenRE.  In addition to Lacey's report, there are interesting comments there.  For example,

There is no factory, no installers, and yet they are putting out six page contracts as if they were a going concern. Their address is basically a mail drop in Delaware, not headquarters for a corporation with 650 million dollars in investor funds.

They are collecting names, and in some cases Social Security numbers, and it seems there is a religious fervor involved that requires blind faith. Blind faith and good business do not go together.

And, another comment

I recently became an Ecopreneur/Associate in Citizenre at the same time I signed an FRA as a customer. I've been researching Citizenre trying to come to a decision as to how I should proceed.

This is, then, someone who is associated within the CitizenRE business structure who continues.

As a registered mechanical engineer, I've spent my career developing an approach to problem-solving based on facts and science. A belief in Citizenre requires almost a suspension of this tried-an-true method of dealing with technological challenges. There are instances and anticdotes that make it sound almost like a religious cult at times.

Because of the near lack of financial risk I have decided to wait out the storm clouds and give Citizenre a chance to prove that it is working toward the betterment of the solar industry. I hope my wait will not be in vein.

And, well, again ...

I want my Free lunch!!!
I don't know how to make,deliver or design sandwiches,but Gimme my free lunch!!!!
This whole model does a disservice to those who have actually studied,worked and invested in the growth of a healthy sustainable energies industry.
It encourages false expectations of unrealistic returns,at the expense of dissillusioned people who were hoping to "do some good".I would love to offer a "cheap energy solution" to people,but I would have to offer a realistic option,and right now that means a capital investment in your property-plain and simple.

But, you need to read through the comments to see the other side, the passion and defense of those committed to CitizenRE ...

they told NOAH that he was cazy!!!! they said you could'nt fly to the moon!!! they also told Sam Walton his business model would'nt work!!!
HAHAHAHAHA That's what the old walmart beleivers are saying now how do you think google started?Or "napster" David Gregg is a visionary and if you are too blind to see then go sit and watch your beta max tapes and be quiet. Because this does not cost any major $$$$ and these solar guys should be offering Mr.Gregg their so called expertise in this field!!!! I am a PROUD ecoprenuer and if these so called solar experts were so damn smart then why have'nt done this yet? I know the $40,000 of which more than half is there profit!!!! they don't want everbody to have SOLAR but David Gregg sayes it's possible and I beleive him over blowhards!!!!

This is somewhat unfair as a quotation, as there are more eloquent, more knowledgeable, more experienced people out there working with CitizenRE. It is, in fact, that degree of expertise and experience of many of the signed up EcoPrenours that help give CitizenRE it's power.  (I was impressed at the resumes of the CitizenRE people who contacted me ...)

Rob Styler, CitizenRE's CEO, has even taken the time to respond to some of the blog discussions (search for Styler):

I am not going to breakdown our business model on this blog, but you can rest assured that major banks do not hand over $650 million in financing if the plan is not solid.

I understand there are skeptics. Our business model is revolutionary.
...
watch the short movie with Ed Begley, Jr. that explains our offering.

Thanks for taking the time to check us out. Our mission is to lead the solar industry into producing 25% of all electricity by the year 2025.

Now, Styler, himself, is part of the critique.  As he documented in his book, Spellbound: My Journey Through a Tangled Web of Success, he was a key actor in one of the larger pyramid schemes in recent history. As one Amazon commentator reviewed it,

A cautionary tale of greed gone oh so wrong, Spellbound made me thankful that my experiences with direct marketing have all been with a company that actually wants its sales force to make money. For those of us who believe in capitalism and have done direct sales with a well-run and fair company ... this book comes as a sad surprise.
What particularly left me with respect for the author is that Styler makes no victim of himself, instead admitting his own culpability in everything that occurred

There are critiques that CitizenRE is nothing more than pyramid scheme. Looking at CitizenRE's compensation plan (and its cascading path toward compensation) and listening to (podcast by Stephen Lacey. ) explanations of it sort of gives substance to those concerns.

What are some of the other concerns, well documented and discussed in the links:

• CitizenRE promises to start installations in September, yet does not yet have a manufacturing plant -- in fact, has yet to announced where the plant will be.
  
• Plants take at least a 12-18 months to get up and running. CitizenRE is claiming to use a new process and new materials. Certification and quality assurance on such new materials would make this a longer process.
  
• While CitizenRE claims $650 million in financing, there is no indication of that financing other than their claims.
  
• That claimed efficiencies for mounting solar systems are not believable.
  
• That there is a global shortage of key materials that CitizenRE is stating doesn't affect them.
  
• That CitizenRE is signing up customers and marketeers, without establishing an installation and maintenance infrastructure.
  
• That ... well ... so on ...

For me, the analyses above more or less dampened the lingering interest in CitizenRE. As much as I'd like to believe otherwise, it really does look to be too good to be true.

Lou Ginzo, the writer of the highly recommended Cost of Energy (on my blogrool), chimed in with The enigma that is Citizenre

 

have no idea what Citizenre's story is. They could be anything from scam artists to legitimate business people who over promised to geniuses who will fool the world and actually make their grand plans work. I don't know, and I don't think anyone outside of Citizenre really knows. Hell, Citizenre might not know how this will play out, even if they have the best of intentions.

...  basic business model, which I have complete faith in and still fully expect to be the pivot point that makes solar power go mainstream. There are already companies like Honeywell installing solar panels on large buildings such as schools and wineries, and I see no reason why this trend won't continue and spread to government buildings, businesses of all sizes, religious institutions, universities and public schools, and even individual homes. It would take some very low probability event to derail this business model--solar tax incentives go away in the US, we discover a way to make cold fusion work in a pickle jar, etc.

the business model will survive and evolve and grow, simply because it makes too much economic and environmental sense not to, even as individual companies come and go. From a US or even international perspective, whether Citizenre succeeds wildly or crashes and burns or simply muddles along as a minor player in the field is irrelevant; plenty of other companies will jump into this market and find ways to make the business model work. There's simply too much potential profit and too great a need for anything else to happen.

I think that Gonzo is right -- that the basic concept, that eventually a company will be able to profitably 'rent your roof from you', makes sense. The question before us all is whether that company is CitizenRe and whether that sometime is now.

And, in regards to CitizenRE, the question is what is the importance? What is the problem if 7727 dreamers (and some Kossacks) have signed up for a dream?  

• Some dealers are already commented that customers are backing out of deals, saying that they are going with CitizenRE.  If it does not deliver, will CitizenRE have taken business out of the solar market for months or years?
  
• If it is overpromising (and, well, you take an honest look -- I think that is a fair description, myself) and fails to deliver on these promises, will CitizenRE's failure to deliver give a bad name to solar energy and hurt the developing market?  (On key solar PV business conditions, see my recent discussion Solar Power:  Making the right choice, the easy choice ...)
  
• Could CitizenRE and impressions of it hurt efforts to provide tax and other incentives for solar electric installations? After all, if CitizenRE can do it so cost-effectively in competition with simple utility prices, why should the taxpayer put a penny into this?

In other words, the issue with CitizenRE is not just between it and 7727 impassioned dreamers, but it is the potential implications for all of us if its promises are simply that.

As Wiredwrote:

Many in the renewable energy community are just watching and waiting; skeptical on the surface and perhaps, deeper down, yearning for it to all be true.

Oh ... do I ever want this to work ... a chicken in every pot ... that is boiling in the water heated by the electricity from solar panels on every roof.  

This is a future, I could live with ... even though, sadly, I do not think CitizenRe is helping us (US) get there ... sigh ...

CRITICAL NOTE:  

• Solar electricity already makes financial sense for businesses and individuals in specific situations and environments.  There are a number of obstacles inhibiting a more extensive deployment (and, well, we can discuss how extensive and how quick that deployment can be) of solar electricity (PV or otherwise).  
  
• There was excellent work done on this by Topline Strategy Group, which does "Strategy Consulting for Emerging Technology Businesses, that I discussed recently in Solar Power:  Making the right choice, the easy choice ... .  
  
• The Energize America team is incorporating concepts like those as part of our holistic look at how to improve energy efficiency throughout the American economy and foster an enhanced deployment of renewable energy systems (including solar).  We are serious in our concerns and efforts to turn the United States (and the world) toward a prosperous and sustaintable energy future.

Additional NOTEs:  

• Energize America
  
• You care about a better tomorrow, sit up and face the facts that today's (this century's) reality is: THE Progressive Crises: Global Warming and Peak Oil
  
• Answer the Call to turn us (US and the world) away from a catastrophic path on Global Warming.
  
• And ... Imagine Life Differently ... Imagine it Better ... And Seek to create that better life