Political Cortex: Brain Food for the Body Politic

Needless to say, given the element of Republican operatives issuing challenges, and Indiana has been a bone of contention from the primary stage due to its voter identification qualification, America could have a tense and highly drawn out period depending on developing circumstances and how they are handled.

One element has produced unanimity among media campaign analysts.  Should, after a mighty Democratic registration, campaign and advertising effort, Indiana becomes the kind of early call for Republicans that have been characteristic since President Lyndon Johnson as the last Democrat carried it in 1964, this will be seen as a major plus for McCain.  

Democrats would then have to analyze how and why this result occurred, analyzing voting procedures and activities of Republicans on the ground.

As Chuck Todd of NBC stated, the longer that this race is close enough to remain in doubt, the better the trend sign for Obama and the Democrats.  Even if the state ends up in the Republican column, a very close result, as appears likely based on final polling data, this would be an indication that Indiana is now a competitive state.

The second important factor is that if Democrats can achieve anything close to parity in this typical Republican stronghold that this could be part of a transformative national trend.

While some commentators have questioned making such a strong play for Indiana, stating that the effort may result in zero electoral votes, the strategy compelled Republicans to defend a state they could otherwise take for granted and could prove the difference if Obama snatches one or more competitive battleground states by close margins.

There is also the future to consider.  If Indiana is now a competitive state then a whole future game is in prospective play.  Democrats will receive greater opportunities to be elected to other offices in Indiana with enhanced strengths in districts that were once certain winners for Republicans.

Virginia will initially be heard from at 7 p.m. eastern time.  Some forecasters predict that a call could be made by 7:45.  Here the Democrats appear to be in good shape to score their first victory since the Johnson landslide over Goldwater in 1964, being bolstered by great strength in the Northern Virginia suburbs near Washington, D.C.

On CNN Monday evening a dour Bay Buchanan, generally an eternal Republican optimist who, indeed, predicted a close win for McCain-Palin, conceded that as a resident of Northern Virginia she has observed tidal wave change and predicted that Obama would carry the state.

At that point David Gergen chimed in, "If Democrats carry Virginia they will win the presidency."

The Gergen sentiment has been stated by most other election analysts.  Given the ebb and flow of the race, if Obama can carry the Old Dominion he should achieve victory.