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Surprise strategy fallacy of HRC Email Print

By joan reports
03/20/2008 08:34:17 AM EST

The Clinton campaign wants desperately to woo primary voters – and swing superdelegates – with the argument that wherever she has led in the "big states" when she matched against Barack Obama she will surely carry the day in November in a faceoff against Republican John McCain. Her strategists cling to that hoped for scenario in states like CALIFORNIA, NY, FLORIDA, OHIO, PENNSYLVANIA, and so on.

But the numbers that came out since last weekend, though overshadowed by Obama confronting the controversy of his pastor, expose the Clinton big-state falsehood. Obama bests her against McCain . . .

  . . . in the very biggest states.


The weekend that the Reverend uproar took front and center in the presidential race, I went and tracked the state-by-state poll reports issued by RasmussenReports polling since last Friday. In the populous states that Clinton had won in primaries, Obama was faring better than her against McCain in many of the states reported – including her adopted home state of NY!


First California, the "big enchilada."
It's Obama 53 to McCain 38, a sizable 15-point advantage for Barack Obama. Clinton has a smaller lead of 46-39, a 7-point gap. (Poll released Mar. 14)


Ohio.  Identical margins here for the two of them: McCain 46 Obama 40; and McCain 46 Clinton 40. (Poll released Mar. 14)

NY. Obama 51, McCain 38.  But Clinton 50, McCain 38. New Yorkers do not feel more loyalty to the senator who serves them than to Obama.  Stunner. (Released Mar. 16)

Colorado (just released, Mar. 19). Tied up for Barack and John McCain, 46-46 even. But Clinton trails far behind the Republican. McC 52, CL 38.

New Hampshire right now has McCain ahead of Obama by 3, McCain ahead of Clinton by 6.

Same story in Florida. "McCain Leads Obama by Four, Leads Clinton by Seven" (released Mar. 16)

The Democrats have the advantage in Connecticut. Obama leads John McCain by 12. Hillary Clinton leads John McCain by 3. (released Mar. 15)

Pa.  It stands at M 44, O 43 and M 46, C 44. It's a highly competitive state, but Clinton's holds no advantage there against McCain at the moment. (Released Mar. 13)

The Rasmussen state-by-state summaries are here. Obama also bests Hillary Clinton by far, vis-a-vis McCain, in Nevada, Oregon, and Minnesota.

She is a stronger candidate only in NJ, Mass. and Washington. He fares best almost everywhere else in the states where Clinton is staking her claim to success.

You would expect she might do better in some of these states where she prevailed in the primary. It's surprising that it's not so. The explanation is that some Republicans and Independents are in Obama's column, but not in hers.


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