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The Full Story of the Bradley Effect Email Print

With Barack Obama as an African American who has secured the Democratic Party presidential nomination, much has been written lately about the Bradley Effect as it applied to the 1982 California governor's race.

The element that has surprised me thus far is that, as someone who was born, grew up and voted in Southern California for years, I have seen that the Bradley Effect has not been discussed any time that I saw it written about or alluded to as it developed in full measure.

The late Tom Bradley was a popular African American politician who rose through the ranks of a track scholarship and resulting degree from UCLA, where Jackie Robinson was a classmate, to a lieutenant's position in the Los Angeles Police Department and, after attending law school at night, a degree from Southwestern University.

Bradley lived his entire life in the Leimert Park area of Los Angeles, which was predominantly white for years and ultimately became primarily African American in population.  

After developing a successful law practice Bradley ultimately sought public office, being elected to the L.A. City Council and, in 1973, defeating longstanding incumbent Sam Yorty to become the city's mayor.

Following impressive re-election victories in 1977 and 1981 Bradley, a Democrat with strong ties to organized labor, became an obvious candidate for governor.  In 1982 he ran as the Democratic Party's nominee for that office against California's Attorney General George Deukmijian.

To understand the forces in play it is important to realize that one generation ago there was not the heavy concentration of television in an era long removed from the current cable-dominated period.  

It is not my intention to shock, but it actually appeared as if, going into the home stretch of that fall 1982 campaign, that many voters were actually concentrating on issues and seeking to determine which candidate best served their interests.

Bradley led going into the crucial home stretch, and at a pivotal moment the event that crystallized what has been termed the Bradley Effect occurred.  

Currently the Bradley Effect has been referred to as the element of voters saying one thing when questioned in public about candidate preferences, and then ultimately voting the opposite way based on a racial factor to which they did not seek to openly admit.

In this case the added factor was that a Deukmijian campaign aide spoke for the record, commanding as much attention as possible, and asking aloud whether it was possible that the polls were inaccurate due to the element of race.  The question that was begged was whether an African American could then be elected governor of California if his identity were known.

Republican nominee Deukmijian immediately fired the aide who made the comment and stated that the opinion expressed was not that of himself or his campaign.

On Election Day Deukmijian was elected in a very close election.  

There are those of you who might share the same skepticism voiced by many Californians at the time - that the point was raised as a strategy ploy and definitely was intended to highlight that Bradley was an African American, a factor that a number of prospective voters either did not then know, or at least had not reflected upon from a racially based context.

For those of you who are skeptics and remember historically about Richard Nixon's Southern Strategy, the Willie Horton campaign of George H. W. Bush in 1988, and the traditions of Lee Atwater and Jesse Helms, you should know about what Governor Deukmijian proposed involving Mexican migrant workers.

In the tradition of the infamous Californian Pete Wilson, Deukmijian's proposal would have created what Mexican-American leaders and progressive opponents of the measure termed an "indentured servitude" status.

The workers would be whisked into California at harvest time, reside in low cost shacks, then sent back to Mexico as soon as Deukmijian's fat cat farm owners had achieved the necessary results and harvest time had ended.  The cycle would then be repeated ad infinitum.

If the governor known as "The Duke" would reveal such a proposal in dealing with migrant workers from Mexico could he have had it both ways with Bradley the African American candidate by expressing shock and firing the campaign aide after the desired message had been delivered?

Should we really believe that Republicans could be that cynical?

Very definitely!        


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