Early voting update: Nevada, no enthusiasm gap Email Print

We have 5 days of early voting in Nevada, more than 82,000 ballots are banked. So it's time to update our earlier tracking that showed no voter fatigue in either party. First, the registration update for Sept. yielded a "huge spike"  of 14,700 voters added, double the number in Aug. The breakout shows: 5061 D,  4026 R and  4040 I.

Now to the early voting. Nevada's 2 largest counties report turnout by registered affiliation.  From Clark (pdf) and Washoe together, since Saturday 37,107 registered Dems have voted and 33,471 registered Republicans.  And 12,366 non-partisans.  Translating to:   45% D, 40% R, 15% I.

We don't know how they've voted, of course. But the turnout lines up with each group's registration ratio. Again, Nevada is not being swung by a turnout gap.

The Independents will be decisive. How they'll vote is anyone's guess. The 2 major candidates, Reid and Angle, both have unfavorability ratings among voters exceeding 50%.  So a portion of voters who turn out may be very determined even if uninspired.

[See also   > >  unlikelyvoter.NET – for another against-the-grain view of the election.  Also shows the early voting dates of each state, and links for college voters.]


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